They take no account of supporters shifting from one candidate to another as candidates drop out. Nor does the article account for the 10-20% undecided or the shallow support for the various candidates.
Romney and Rudy have the most money so they will be in to the end. Next is McCain and then Fred. If Fred can outperform McCain, he may get his old friend to drop out and recommend him.
Huckabee, I think, is a one state wonder. If he disappoints in IA (lower than 2nd place), I think he’s through for the campaign. He doesn’t have much money.
Right now I see Romney, Fred, and Huck in IA. We’ll see on January 3rd.
The media made the ones so far look like unserious gameshows. That must stop now.