I don’t discount variability in the price of crude but the world is too dependent on petroleum to bet any other way than up and to the right. I think we’ll see $125 crude oil before we see $40 again.
Oil prices may not have peaked yet, but every spike in prices has been followed by a precipitous plunge. It always happens this way, but as the world economy has expanded the time between the spikes has stretched out a bit.