Posted on 12/30/2007 8:26:08 PM PST by icwhatudo
It opened three weeks ago at #1. Then it slipped to #3, and then to #9. And now, in its fourth weekend, The Golden Compass has fallen off the weekly top-ten chart altogether, landing at #12 with a "domestic" cume of $58.9 million -- and thus it continues to trail behind last year's considerably cheaper fantasy flick Eragon. And don't even bother trying to compare this film's grosses to those of the recent fantasy blockbusters whose ranks this film so desperately wanted to join.
But wait. Variety reports that The Golden Compass is still #2 overseas -- surpassed only by the unexpectedly huge hit I Am Legend -- and out there, the film has grossed $187 million, more than triple what it has made in North America (and more than Eragon made overseas in its entire theatrical run).
So the film isn't a complete bust. Then again, as noted here three weeks ago, New Line Cinema sold off the foreign distribution rights to cover some of its production costs before the film had even come out, so there is only so much comfort the studio can glean from the overseas receipts.
Full weekends estimates here:
My, my. What a shame!
Even worse for New Line is that it already sold it's foreign rights where 75% of it's revenue total is coming from. With a 50/50 split, even if he had kept the rights, it would need around 650 - 700 million worldwide to break even. It looks like it will probably end around 350-400 million meaning it will lose (before TV, DVDs, etc) around $100-$175 million. After all is said and done, it will probably lose $50-$125 million.
Sounds like its doing pretty good. Looks to me like 300 million worldwide may be within reach; thats really quite good. I had no idea it was doing that well.
I would say that would be enough to continue the series. It will do well on DVD too and on cable. Demand for sequels will come from that.
300 million ww is about 150 million net for the studio. The production budget was $250 million + advertising.
It has been a disappointment here in the US. But Im surprised how well its doing overseas. I could seem them going ahead with the next two, but shooting them both at the same time on a lower budget.
Its not done its run yet; lets see what it ends up with first before we declare it a flop for the studio. My 300 estimate may have been low, from your post it appears so. So it even did better than I thought!
Who would have guessed that an atheist fairy tale aimed at kids would flop in the U.S? Well, other than everyone with a brain, that is.
Maybe, I don’t see the shareholders being happy in NL risking another 500 million in production (plus 150+ million on advertising) on 2 films that didn’t do well domestically and so-so internationally with so-so word of mouth (C+ yahoo user ratings which is well below average)
Theyd have to keep the budget down. But I can see them doing it with these numbers, or especially the numbers you predict it to make. 400 million worldwide would mean it did pretty well. That would bode well for DVD and cable tv too. Obviously there are alot of people interested in this story then, just not in the US.
I actually think its problem in the US had to do mostly with its female lead. A female lead for any kind of action movie is a hard sell in the US. It looked kind of... artsy too, like it was intellectual as much as it was about action. And the controversy didnt help here either, thats for sure.
400 million is top end, and would require it to end at 300 million international and squeek up to near 100m domestic which is doubtful. I wouldn’t be surprised if it only hits 300 million either WW but at this point $350 million is likely with the holiday season boosting legs a bit. They are fortunately that the $ is weak as if it came out 5 years ago, that $350m WW # would only be around 225-250 million.
regards,
Where are the sequels to the DaVinci Cr@p???
Also, Golden Compass really has been doing terrible.
When you release a movie and it goes out to 3000+ theaters, you expect it gross lots and lots of movie.
Try comparing this big budget flop to The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe.
That movie pulled in $744 million from the box office, and it had a smaller budget than Golden Compass.
RED INK is the best way to describe Golden Compass...
Its a flop here, but it is doing surprisingly well overseas.
Da Vinci Code made a huge amount of money. That movie was crap though, I agree. One of the worst I ever paid to see lol. They are making the sequel though. Its called Angels and Demons, I think. Tom Hanks is back, and I think Naomi Watts is to be the leading lady.
I really wouldn’t worry about sequels.
From my own exhaustive research it seems most kids give up a third of the way through the second book, “The Subtle Knife” when character studies and subplots start spinning off in a dozen directions and the church-bashing starts turning into a hectoring lecture.
I took my 11 year old.
The plot was impossible to follow for the 1st half of the film. What a waste of good actors. The special effects were amazing, it was difficult to get into the film when the effects so overshadowed the semblance of a moral lesson. (or at least a coherent storyline), and the ending!
if it had written: “to be continued...’ it would have been more subtle!
Yeah, well, I’d go see an athiest-written fantasy before I’d see ALIENS vs. PREDATOR 2. In that masterpiece, pregnant women in a maternity ward about to deliver are force-fed alien eggs, resulting in their screaming and exploding with several chestbursters-and newborn babies are eaten or infected as well (THAT is implied rather than shown, Thank God). In the beginning, a young boy watches one burst out of his Father, just before the same thing happens to him. And this POS opened on CHRISTMAS DAY!! Tell everyone you know to avoid this atrocity. I don’t know where this crap all started (the SAW franchise?) -It’s supposed to be ‘horror’, but I call it ‘gorenography’.
I guess there is, after all, a way to show “them” what isn’t acceptable. Don’t you really kinda like it when Hollywood loses one.
You’re forgetting one important thing ... they sure as shootin’ won’t be selling off the foreign this time around.
Also, when you’re working out TGC’s potential profits/losses, factor in that the film banked 60 + million right away from its distribution rights sales, the flick is working outside the US which likely means huge liscencing royalties (this is a kids flick, afterall) from merchandising for NL, studio’s usually negotiate a cut of all books old post-flick within a certain window of time, etc.
I doubt the director will be back.
Factor in that each European screen means about $100,000 costs. A 3000 screen opening in the US costs $30 million in printing and distributing... costs not counted in production, but marketing.
Usually movies oversees reduce printing costs by staggering their openings over several markets, so they can reuse prints. NewLine opened the movie pretty much simultaneously around the world. It prevented bad word of mouth, but at a staggering cost.
NewLine’s production costs of $250 don’t include international distribution or dmoestic or international marketing. And people only buy the videotape if they liked the movie. This production is going to cost BIG TIME. The wierd thing is that the people who will lose the money are the British taxpayers.
If the first movie bombs, it’s written off as one loser in a diverse portfolio. If the second movie gets made after such losses, however, it’ll nakedly be state-funded anti-Christian propaganda.
Whatever possessed you to go see that movie?
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