Posted on 12/28/2007 9:41:25 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki
ANALYSIS-"Failed state" Pakistan raises nuclear threat
Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:41am EST
By Luke Baker
LONDON, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Security experts fear Pakistan's nuclear materials could fall into the hands of Islamic militants as the country's instability deepens in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination.
In early 2005, a joint security assessment by the CIA and the U.S. National Intelligence Council predicted Pakistan would become "a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanisation" by 2015.
Following Bhutto's death in Rawalpindi on Thursday, some experts believe the timeframe on that assessment may now have been brought forward, with political upheaval pitching Pakistan, a nuclear-armed power since 1998, towards breakdown.
"It's a very, very valid risk," said M.J. Gohel, the head of the Asia-Pacific Foundation, a London-based security and intelligence think-tank, describing the possibility that parts of Pakistan's nuclear technology could fall into militant hands.
"It's only a matter of time before al Qaeda or somebody sympathetic to them gets hold of nuclear weapons, and if al Qaeda or its sympathisers are to get hold of them, then Pakistan is at this point the weakest link in the chain.
"It is the most unstable country in the world that has nuclear weapons. Iran may want nuclear weapons, but it doesn't have them today. Pakistan does."
Despite the concerns frequently raised by nuclear experts, especially since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, Washington believes Pakistan's arsenal remains secure.
U.S. military and defence officials say the weapons are safely under the control of the Pakistani military, and the Pentagon on Friday counselled calm despite recent turmoil.
"Our assessment is that the Pakistani nuclear arsenal is under control," spokesman Colonel Gary Keck said. "At this time we have no need for concern."
PROLIFERATION THREAT
The security of Pakistan's nuclear programme, begun in the early 1970s, has, however, been of international concern since the 1990s when suspicions emerged that A.Q. Khan, the head of the programme, was trading know-how with China and North Korea.
Khan confessed on national television in 2004, admitting that Iran and Libya had been among his clients. The next day he was pardoned by President Pervez Musharraf. Despite the proliferation breach, the United States imposed no sanctions.
Musharraf, a former head of the army who came to power in a military coup in 1999, once said that "not an army bolt" could go missing without his knowledge, and yet Khan managed for years to export sophisticated technology with little restraint.
Given that Musharraf, an important U.S. ally in the battle against militants, also has to juggle the fact that elements of his military have sympathy with the Taliban and al Qaeda, the possibility of nuclear security being compromised exists.
"In the long run, if you have all these nuclear assets and a government that's having to pander to extremists to stay in power, it's not a good look," Henry Sokolski, the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a Washington-based nonprofit organisation, told Reuters.
"These weapons and these assets are a potential headache wherever they are, so it doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that they are a threat somewhere like Pakistan."
If Pakistan's nuclear arsenal were to be compromised, experts are not suggesting that whole nuclear bombs or armed missiles, of which Pakistan is estimated to have up to 100, would somehow pass into militant hands.
More probable is that nuclear material, such as small quantities of radioactive uranium, would be passed on, allowing groups such as al Qaeda to develop so-called "dirty bombs".
Al Qaeda's desire to get hold of such weapons is long held -- Gohel says the group has had a Weapons of Mass Destruction committee for several years, with most members still at large.
Paul Wilkinson, the former head of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St Andrews University, said an unstable Pakistan could lead to a "nightmare scenario".
"We could have a situation where extremists were able to control the nuclear facilities of Pakistan," he told the UK's Press Association. "That would be a very dangerous, nightmare scenario, and one that we really ought to be concerned about." (Additional reporting by Mark Heinrich in Vienna and Andrew Marshall in Dubai and Kristin Roberts in Washington; Editing by Giles Elgood)
Peacenik front organization. They can't even call themselves a "think tank". Rooters goes all out to find their sources.
yitbos
Does that make everything said in the article meaningless??
Bring back Musharraf . He is the only hope over there , at this time .
Did he leave somewhere so as to bring him back??
FYI, I know Henry and he is one of the few conservative non-proliferation advocates and he is one of the best. He served in the Reagan and Bush 41 administrations and is very closely linked to the Heritage Foundation. He is almost always the FIRST person called to testify to Congressional commitees on nuclear matters by Republican Congressmen and Senators.
I’d take his views very seriously.
Then they 'quote' some unnamed US Officials saying that the nukes are under the 'control' of the Pak military as if that's a good thing. It isn't.
The Pak military is controlled by AQ and Taleban sympathizers just like the ISI is. Musharef is holding on by a freaking thread.
I'll lay you odds that he doesn't live until Spring. He's a dead man walking and it's highly likely that his own military or 'intelligence services' will be the ones that kill him.
He knows it. The US Government knows it. But everyone is doing this stupid kabuki dance that somehow the elections next month will bring 'stability' to Pakistan. That's a freaking joke and anyone with half a brain knows it.
The result of the Pak 'elections' is going to be an increasingly radicalized political structure over there just one step away from a Mullah structure a la Iran.
Picture Mullah Omar with his hand on a nuclear button. That's the future of Pakistan.
L
The majority of the senior Pakistani officer corp is level headed-which is why Pakistan stays in one piece & which is why Musharraf has not gone 6 feet under.Musharraf is hardly the all powerful dictator folks make him out to be.Pakistan is run more by a junta than by one man.You would need to kill scores of officers,not just Musharraf.
Bull. They're corrupt to the core. If they were level headed and honest Bhutto would still be alive. They're as corrupt and radical as Mushie and Bhutto. They'll sell 'pakistan' out in a heartbeat as long as they get to keep those goofy looking shoulder boards.
Then they'll quite happily start mowing down whomever the latest Saudi backed Wahabbi nutjob who has shot his way into the palace tells them to.
Pakistan is finished. Done. Over.
Time to take their nukes by whatever means necessary and end this fantasy of paki 'cooperation' against the terrorists living quite openly there. They have not and never have been 'cooperating'.
Mushie is a terrorist. He supports terrorists. He allows terrorists safe haven in his crappy little country. Time to let him get sent to hell and let Pakistan follow.
Once we've secure their nukes, we can start wiping out the jihadi scum on the Afghan border in earnest.
L
He likes Bolton on non-proliferation, that's good.
His take on this Pakistan situation is bias. He is a hawk on non-proliferation. "If they got nukes and we don't like them, we should take the nukes away even with force."
The guy is fearmongering on Bhutto assassination issue.
Bhutto was anti Al Qaida, anti-terrorist. She has a lot more followers, combined with government forces who will avenge her 1000 times.
yitbos
I like the way you write - straight to the point.
Level headed in the sense they won’t openly allow a Taliban style government to take over-not because of ideological convictions,but because it will hurt their own social/economic interests.Everyone knows that the Pakistani army is corrupt to the core,but they have been sensible so far.
About Benazir,they knew she was a threat-doesn’t it make sense to see her packed off & or atleast allow it to happen??I call it clear thinking.Being corrupt & supportive of Islamist elements doesn’t mean you can’t be sensible(in the Paki sense of the word).
Actually, they known as a stink tank..
They're not going to get a vote....
L
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