Posted on 12/28/2007 10:46:56 AM PST by Calpernia
:)
1) The influx of wealth and information destabilizes any dictatorship. These wealthy billionaires, even if children of party members, know how good it is around the world. There will be rebellion from them and from the rising middle class Chinese. Think of the USSR after glasnost—openness of society destabilizes Communism.
2) The low Chinese birth rate (they are no longer reproducing at a replacement level) and the imbalance of men to women (40 million, if I remember correctly) leads to a driving force of millions of Chinese men seeking women outside the country. This will be another influx of new ideas to China.
3) Most seriously of all, the rising tide of Christianity in China. Perhaps a hundred million or more Chinese fervently follow Christianity in house Churches outside control of government. Since this is illegal, these are all sincere, devout, effective Christians—hence its incessant spread. Christianity outlasted the Roman empire and the Soviet empire. We’ll see the Chinese communist empire crash this century as well, perhaps within twenty years.
These trends are regardless of our trade policies with China and unstoppable, as far as I can see.
The Pentagon report disagrees with you.
There is only one candidate who knows and says anything about the terrible threat posed by China....his name is Duncan Hunter.
There is only one candidate who knows and says anything about the terrible threat posed by China....his name is Duncan Hunter.
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“The Pentagon report disagrees with you.”
Sorry. I am not aware of this report. Do you have a link to it?
That is all....
FMCDH(BITS)
Every dynasty in China fell because of revolt from the rural area, not the middle class/city wealthy. China’s main problem is the rich who are connected to powerful party officials and family. Most of the corrupt officials and CEO’s in China are children of party officials. Farmers are very angry as precious farmland are takened to build MacMansions and golf courses and compensations are 1/3 of what was promised. Any farmer that complains about the abuse is arrested and charged with sedition or rebellion. Local officials cannot be touched or charged because they have powerful relatives or connections. The only institution in China untouched by corruption is the military. Every year ten of thousands of Chinese soldiers retire, who were raised in a professional merit culture (promotion based on achievement, and less on connection). These men are givened government jobs after they retire from the military and many are apalled at the corruption and abuse of the farmers and poor in China. A number of the armed riots in China have been lead and organized by former Chinese soldiers. Failure of China’s central government will make these revolts more frequent and widespread. China will have revolution in the 21st Century and it will be lead by her military.
“Here’s how important I think China will be: My daughter, who was born in 2003, is learning Chinese. Her Chinese nanny speaks only Mandarin to her, and I suspect that she might learn Chinese before she learns English. In her lifetime, Chinese will be the most important language in the world, next to English. If you are young and ambitious, learn Chinese. If you have ambitions for your children, persuade them to learn Chinese.”
Given the social level, wealth, and access his daughter will have just by virtue of being his daughter, this is quite smart actually, from a purely pragmatic viewpoint.
“The only institution in China untouched by corruption is the military”
I would imagine the military leadership is fabulously corrupt - Norinco, North China Military Industries, etc.?
LOL, I was using my Mandarin flashcards just before getting back to FR!
Which means that it will all be a wasted effort. Along with their amazingly poor construction and financial standards, adherence to failed economic policy will simply mean that China will hinder its progress even more than we let liberals to hinder ours. This seems to be pretty good news for those who do not an ascendant China.
these transfers, together with the U.S. regulatory and tax policies imposed on the American economy, are enabling China to drive us into the ground economically, and even ... to grab up our assets in a big way.
The same was said about the Japanese in the 80's, when they seemed to be buying all of California.
Clarification, rank and file enlisted/officers are professional. The general ranks are half and half. You don’t hear too much of any new PLA scandals because the Communist Party has reined in the generals from making PLA into a private enterprise. This came about because many of the PLA arms sales were private actions and not necessarily coordinated with the PRC foreign policy objectives. A number of times PLA arms were sold to insurgents while the PRC was trying to establish more favorable relations with the existing government. Remember the PLA donations to Clintons campaign? The PLA general responsible for the project was sacked because the PRC was trying to negotiate some trade issues with the US that needed Congressional approval. The general did not inform the CCP when he initiated the money laundering until the operation was well underway. The scandal played a role in electing GWB over Gore.
You can't say that loud enough!!!!
The gentry have always played a big part in Chinese revolts, since they've been necessary to provide organizational and logistical expertise to get the rebels trained up and supplied and to get members of the existing officialdom to join the rebels. The real question is whether this government will offend enough segments of the population to provoke a revolution. What I find interesting are the occasional incidents involving thousands of rioters who attack local party offices or police stations. It just boggles the mind that grievances can get so heated there that they override the mob's sense of self-preservation. It's one thing to hear of this kind of thing in India, whose elected government is a little more careful about civilian casualties and where ethnic and caste grievances play no small part in rioting, and quite another to hear about it in mostly ethnically homogeneous China, a country that uses tanks to crush student demonstrations.
Exactly.
But to acknowledge China's military threat might threaten the profits of a few.
Which is why the delusional defense of the trade is just plain sick. The few are getting us ALL endangered.
Of course, those few wouldn't have that kind of power if the political leadership was in fact principled and incorruptible.
It says it all when they clearly do succumb to the "few."
thanks for your comments, you are better informed on this than I am.
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