I simply doubt polls. I know I know. Polls are accurate. But come on.
Here are some recent polls and they are all ‘phone’ polls.
Are they landline? Cell? What? This is a huge factor I would think.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-715.html
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican caucus goers living in Iowa (527 Republicans and 73 no party (independent) voters).
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_122107.htm
Below are the results of a three-day poll in the state of Iowa. Results are based on telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican cacus goers and 600 likely Democratic cacus goers, aged 18+, and conducted December 16-18, 2007. The margin of sampling error is ±4.5 percentage points for each party.
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1395
The Zogby International telephone survey package included:
Iowa Republicans: 508 likely caucusgoers interviewed Nov. 29Dec. 1, carrying a margin of error of +/ 4.4 percentage points.
Iowa Democrats: 514 likely caucusgoers interviewed Nov. 29Dec. 1, carrying a margin of error of +/ 4.4 percentage points.