My evidence is anecdotal, but significant, and I have found the claims of CFL life to be greatly exaggerated. Upon further reading, I’ve learned that they only last if you turn them on and leave them on. Ons and offs significantly reduce their lifespan.
I promise you the anecdotal evidence against dud incandescents is WORSE than CFLs. I work for a retail company with 77 current locations and I can tell you regular light bulbs frequently dud in a day probably 5% of the time, and we replace them all about once every 3 months on average. The on/off thing is true off all lighting including incandescents. A lot of 'truths' about CFLs a few years ago are no longer true of new ones (color is a lot better, the last longer, less mercury per bulb, no longer noisy)