Posted on 12/19/2007 1:56:22 PM PST by cold666pack
Local GOP preparing for big choice
By: SUNANA BATRA - For the North County Times
A frequent commentator on politics, and the manager of John McCain's 2000 campaign for president, Mike Murphy's keynote speech at the Lincoln Club of San Diego County's annual dinner last week was witty, insightful and, at times, cutting.
"San Diego has always been the spark plug in California and holds an important role nationally," he said. He spoke of the new ground California will break on Feb. 5, when we will hold our presidential primary.
Murphy suggested that since we will have the most compressed presidential nominating contest in recent history, California will hold a significantly important position because candidates will be competing for a share of the country's biggest electoral prize: 173 of the 2,380 delegates who will decide the Republican Party's nominee for president at its convention in September.
Not since 1964, when Sen. Barry Goldwater campaigned in California in a close primary election against the governor of New York, Nelson A. Rockefeller, has California been a determining factor in selecting who the GOP's nominee will be.
This is surely a reason Gov. Schwarzenegger and the California Legislature opted to move up the primary from June. Good ideas spread fast and it was not long before other states jumped on the early-primary bandwagon, reducing the impact of our initial move somewhat.
But it's quite possible, our early primary could produce some surprises. In the past the large number of not-yet-awarded delegates allowed voters to rally around a single candidate that had already won several key states.
But without knowing whom their Republican brethren have chosen to support, it's quite possible California will award its delegates to a number of candidates, rather than giving a big boost to just one of them late in the game. This is due to new rules that will award some delegates by congressional district instead of the winner-take-all system that existed in the past.
Mr. Murphy also discussed the various primary election vulnerabilities of the Republican candidates. "(John) McCain's immigration positions have hurt him, but he's still in the race and could very well win New Hampshire," he said.
While suggesting that Rudy Giuliani, who was the front-runner in several states for a while, may be on a down-spin now, Murphy believes his message of strength will resonate with voters. Fred Thompson, who got into the race with a big explosion, would make a really good president but "has not been an electrifying candidate." And Gov. Mitt Romney, who is very strong, has lost his lead in Iowa to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has shot ahead in the polls to everyone's surprise.
He also predicted a 70 percent chance that Michael Bloomberg would enter the race as a wild card candidate, but explained in detail how it's not worrisome and a net positive for Republicans should he do so.
But he also said that no matter who wins our primary, we'll end up with an "interesting candidate who can run as a highly confident, far more experienced candidate with an agenda that is in line ideologically with the majority of mainstream America and will have the temperament and background to bring change in an adult way."
In closing, he said, "The only rule in politics is that nothing is static, everything is always changing." There will be a lot of media types saying it's over for Republicans, but we have a lot of time to make our case, and we have exceptional candidates."
"It all starts here." He said.
Encinitas resident Sunana Batra is a freelance columnist for the North County Times. Contact her at sunanabatra@gmail.com. Comment at nctimes.com.
A frequent speaker on elections and politics, Mike Murphy's keynote speech to the Lincoln Club of San Diego County's 24th Annual Dinner was tremendous. National Public Radio's All Things Considered radio personality and frequent guest on NBC's Meet the Press with Tim Russert, Mr. Murphy grabbed the attention of the 600 plus guests in attendance at the Town and Country hotel in San Diego Thursday night with his witty, at times cutting and insightful comments.
" San Diego has always been the spark plug in California and holds an important role nationally," he said. He spoke of the new ground California will embark on in February, when we, along with 21 other states will hold our Primary election. Murphy suggested that since we will have the most compressed presidential primary in modern history, California will hold a significantly important position because candidates will be competing for all, or a share of the country's biggest electoral prize, our 173 delegates who will help make up the 2,380 delegate's at the party's nominating convention in September.
Not since 1964, when Senator Barry Goldwater campaigned in California in a close primary election against the Governor of New York, Nelson A. Rockefeller, has California been a determining factor in who the nominee of either party would be. This is surely a reason Governor Schwarzenegger and the California Legislature opted to move up the primary. Good ideas spread fast and it was not long before 21 other states jumped on the early primary bandwagon, reducing the impact of our initial move somewhat.
But it's quite possible, our early primary could produce some surprises. In the past, when California held its primary in June, the large number of not-yet-awarded delegates allowed voters to rally around a single candidate that had won several key states already.
But without knowing who their Republican brethren have chosen to support, it's quite possible California will award it's delegates to as many as three of the top-tier candidates, rather than giving a big boost to just one of them late in the game. Since it's arguable there is no clear establishment favorite as of yet, it's very likely the Republicans go to convention with more than one viable candidate, making the convention interesting to say the least. Since competition makes for better choices, a convention where there are two or three very viable candidates could be just the shot the party needs, providing a rare opportunity to discuss substantial policy-driven issues, carving out a clear direction for Republicans rather than the usual rallying behind one candidate.
Mr. Murphy also discussed the various primary election vulnerabilities.of the Republican candidates. "McCain's immigration positions have hurt him, but he's still in the race and could very well win New Hampshire ," he said. While suggesting that Guiliani, who was the frontrunner in several states for a while, may be on a down-spin now, but that his message of strength will resonate with voters." He talked about how Fred Thompson, who got into the race with a big explosion, would make a really good President, but "has not been an electrifying candidate." And that Governor Romney, who is very strong, has lost his lead in Iowa to Huckabee, who has shot ahead in the polls to everyone's surprise. He also predicted a 70% chance Michael Bloomberg would enter the race as a wild card candidate, but explained in detail how it's not worrisome and a net positive for Republicans should he do so.
But he also said that no matter who wins our primary, we'll end up with an "Interesting candidate who can run as a highly confident, far more experienced candidate with an agenda that is in line idealogically with the majority of mainstream America and will have the temperament and background to bring change in an adult way."
In closing, he said, "The only rule in politics is that nothing is static, everything is always changing." There will be a lot of media types saying it's over for Republicans, but we have a lot of time to make our case and we have exceptional candidates."
"It all starts here." He said
Yeah, God forbid that he should have a Republican agenda.
If idiots like Murphy called all the shots, Ronald Reagan would have never been elected.
I disagree.. I think the majority of mainstream America does fall in line with the Republican Ideals, in many ways if not all of them.
Do They want borders secured? yes
Do they want our schools to be better? Yes
Do they want us to win the war? Yes
Do they want higher taxes? No
So they want Islamofacism corrupting our society? No
Now, they think they want health care for everyone, but this is one of a few issues that when explained properly to them, they eventually come around and realize it is just not possible to have quality healthcare for everyone with no cost to anyone.
As republicans, we have a responsibility to explain our ideas better, not simply run hiding or dismiss people when they think they disagree with us!
You misunderstand what I said. The "centrist" Republican Party, particularly in California, is pro-gay, pro-Enviro Racket, and pro-educrat. That is what THEY are calling "mainstream America." One need only observe what Arnold has done in California to envision what Murphy and his misbegotten ilk have planned for the rest of the country.
But did you notice, the only person he said would “be a great president” is fred thompson? Anh he aint no centrist!
Yeah, and neither was George Bush. Fred's a globalist, just like the Bushes. If he's elected, expect to be disappointed.
Hmmm. if Fred is a globalist, seems to me he believes in a FREE MARKET ECONOMY, sounds like pretty good grounds to be on. DUncan, on the other hand, wants to end all trade with everyone. He’s an isolationsit and it seems pretty clear that aint goin’ over so well.
I’d be prepared to see the ups and downs of the free market much more so than seeing anything good coming out of closing off decent trade partners in the name of those damn furriners!
That's pure hokum. Fred is a fan of trade subsidized by the government's power to socialize risk.
DUncan, on the other hand, wants to end all trade with everyone.
Oh, so expecting China to abide by their trade agreements is to respect American IP and stop manipulating its currency is equivalent to desiring to end all trade now is it? Gosh, what will you liars think of next?
He’s an isolationsit and it seems pretty clear that aint goin’ over so well.
It's not isolationist to want to win this war, nor is it isolationist to secure the border. Hunter is far ahead of Fred on both in competence alone.
The author appears to be a Fred supporter, so I think Murphy's words were probably included in the most favorable context. Set next to what he said about Giuliani, along with Murphy's history as a big Schwarzenegger-shill, I think one can surmise where Murphy's ideological thinking lies.
While suggesting that Rudy Giuliani, who was the front-runner in several states for a while, may be on a down-spin now, Murphy believes his message of strength will resonate with voters.Fred Thompson, who got into the race with a big explosion, would make a really good president but "has not been an electrifying candidate."
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