Right, forget Iowa, Clinton did awful in ‘92, recovered and sailed. You are analyzing this primary correctly IMO - past Democrat primaries are more like this GOP one - open seat, no clear favourite, elastic polling numbers, very soft core support,etc.
Thompson has revitialized and could actually clean up Super Tuesday - Romney will win Iowa and NH but stumble then.
Pretty good analysis, and I think South Carolina is key.
I'd put Keyes standing next to Fred in photo ops—SC has a strong Christian countryside, black and white.