While true, the problem with that analysis is that Huck has already displaced a former frontrunner. Romney, like Dean, was looking good there for like 10 months. Huck knocked him out.
So I’m not sure who is going to emerge to knock out the new frontrunner. I know a lot of FR like to think that Fred is going to make a strong move there and anything is possible (theoretically) in politics. But Fred is trending down, from as high as 15 to south of 10 now, even slightly below Giuliani according the the latest realclearpolitics.com poll averages. The point being: someone is going to have to make a serious, serious comeback to knock out Huck. Rapid ascents are rare in politics, but comebacks are almost non-existent.
Exactly. The only chance of a Kerry-like defeat of Huckabee is if Fred Thompson somehow makes a move in Iowa. That is going to be tough since Huckabee seems to have the Christian vote locked up.
Dean was not the first front-runner in 2004, either. I forget who was, but I know that Dean came on as an insurgent alternative to the early FRB (to use a hash term). Dean rose quickly and fell even quicker.
Fred's numbers were quite high before he announced. After he announced, his numbers started slipping. Therefore, if he expects to win, he needs to drop out of the race ;-)
Don’t count either McCain or Romney out yet, unfortunately. Romney especially. He is really the one to beat IMO.
Huckster’s support is all media driven. He’s an empty suit like Obama.