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To: djf
They are all to blame. The Fed was too loose for too long, panicking over the stock market crash and early WoT. The banks lent recklessly, and the Wall Street masters of the universe threw out decades of sound finance for their spreadsheet innovations. Foreign mercantilists goosed trade by buying reams of USTs and kept out long rates low, doing so. They also refuse to let their developing peoples consume as their incomes have risen. US households aren't saving, and instead are irresponsible with debt.

Every single link goes wonky, and it all goes comprehensively smash, and they are all to blame, and we will all pay. Blame is so irrelevant anyway.

The one item in the article that is Stalinist-surreal, is the developing world saving 33% of income - while the richest on earth, like us, save nothing. It is utterly crazy to have that division, and it cannot possibly last.

The other item that stood out is the claim that long rates being so low are a proof that investment can't keep up with savings desires. This is manifest nonsense. Savings are due to desire in places like China, they are policy. And long rates are low because every central bank on earth is inflationist. If low rates really reflected low demand, then gold and oil prices would be weak, not galloping. Low rates reflect a uniform policy of excessive looseness by all central banks, together.

The normal check on one country being too loose is that its currency weakens. But when everybody does it, commodity prices soar instead.

29 posted on 12/12/2007 12:28:33 PM PST by JasonC
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To: JasonC
Sorry, should read "savings are not due to desire in places like China, they are policy". The point being, the governemnt does not allow the people to make their own consumption decisions, when it monopolizes foreign exchange.
30 posted on 12/12/2007 12:30:35 PM PST by JasonC
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To: JasonC
Stalinist-surreal, is the developing world saving 33% of income - while the richest on earth, like us, save nothing

A heartfelt "AMEN" to that.

The Depression is no longer part of the memory of living Americans, and we are not the better for it.

We will finally be out of the twilight zone when "consumer spending up" is not considered as good an indicator as "consumer savings up".

33 posted on 12/12/2007 3:15:07 PM PST by Notary Sojac (Bring Back Paul Volcker!!)
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