Iran: The wrong options on the table

Asia Times Online ^ | 12/11/2007 | Spengler

[ZeitgeistSurfer]

American journalist, essayist and satirist H L Mencken's dictum that every problem has an easy solution that is neat, plausible and wrong applies doubly to the Middle East. The George W Bush administration is divided over two neat, plausible and wrong solutions.

The recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) marks the momentary ascent of the "realists", who believe in balance of power and deterrence, and a defeat for the "idealists", who want

to export democracy to the region. Contrary to Cold War mythology, deterrence never worked, while pursuit of balance of power in history invariably led to the mutual annihilation of equally-balanced adversaries. With regard to Middle Eastern democracy, one might as well propose to export unicorns to Neverland.

[ZeitgeistSurfer]

A good analysis that tends to confirm the hypothesis that the NIE exculpation of Iran was a deal for stability in Iraq. The ball is being kicked downfield. If the Dems get back in the White House, it's full speed ahead in Iran (nukes in 2009) and Iraq (Shiite take-over in 2009). If a Pubbie is elected, the Iranians will 'test' him first to see if there are any consequences to the 'full speed ahead' approach. One other prediction, if it's the Dem scenario, you can bet on Israel (under a new prime minister, most likely Netanyahu) attacking Iran in early 2009. Will we end up with WWIII? that's the big question on the table.

[Kolokotronis]

“The long, slow, sickening disintegration of the Muslim Middle East requires a doggedness, detachment and appreciation for tragedy that no leader in Washington presently possesses.”

Bingo! The truth is that no leader and damn few citizens in the West have any appreciation for tragedy. This is because they have lost whatever understanding of the reality of Evil they ever did have.

[plenipotentiary]

If the Israeli bombing of the Syrian Nuclear facility was the destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Bomb project which had been outsourced, then I think the problem may have “gone away” for a while.

Also the Iranian Republican Guard Commander who defected may have clarified exactly who was doing what where.

Maybe Bush strategery has neutered Iran, and N Korea, and given the US time to take down those regimes by other means.

Hope so.