The NIE Fantasy

WSJ Opinion Journal ^ | Tuesday, December 11, 2007 | BRET STEPHENS

[BIGLOOK]

The intelligence community failed to anticipate the Cuban Missile Crisis.

"The USSR could derive considerable military advantage from the establishment of Soviet medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles in Cuba, or from the establishment of a submarine base there. . . . Either development, however, would be incompatible with Soviet practice to date and with Soviet policy as we presently estimate it."

--Special National Intelligence Estimate 85-3-62, Sept. 19, 1962

Twenty-five days after this NIE was published, a U-2 spy plane photographed a Soviet ballistic missile site in Cuba, and the Cuban Missile Crisis began. It's possible the latest NIE on Iran's nuclear weapons program will not prove as misjudged or as damaging as the 1962 estimate. But don't bet on it.

[goldstategop]

Our intelligence agencies misjudged the Soviets and we came that close to a nuclear war. The Iranians are not going to demonstrate such restraint, if heaven forbid, they get The Bomb.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[BIGLOOK]

Our analysts hardly at work.......

[BIGLOOK]

I read a very interesting comparison of the mindsets existential Soviets and the Islamists a while ago. It pointed out that the Soviets wouldn't risk all since they believed there was nothing else beyond their lives on earth. The Islamists, however. had their paradise and virgins to look forward to.

This is the one time I agreed with atheists.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks for the ping...

I like the last statement:

*****************

For years it has been a staple of fever swamp politics to believe the U.S. government is in the grip of shadowy powers using "intelligence" as a tool of control. With the publication of this NIE, that is no longer a fantasy.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

pingaroo!

[BurbankKarl]

I think this NIE was leaked to have this whole thing investigated in Congress, thereby planting it in the Democrats head they need to take action.

If Bush took some course of action, he would be wrong...even if Iran launched missiles against Israel, Bush would get blamed, etc. So just change the debate and get all the evidence out in the open.

[BIGLOOK]

Yeah....a shocker.

Well that's what happens when politically appointed, obligated bureaucrats become entrenched and held over.

(Let's not forget the mess created by Gore and the Clinton administration in 2000. The Bush transition got off to a rocky start.)

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Isn't there a book ...Shadow Government?

Found one:

Shadow Government: The Hidden World of Public Authorities-And How They Control over $1 Trillion of Your Money (Paperback)
by Donald Axelrod (Author)

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I’m not sure it is going to work out the way the anti-Bush folks thought it would.

But it certainly complicates slowing Iran down.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks BIGLOOK for the topic and Ernest for the ping.

[singfreedom]

Yes, I got cold chills. We absolutely have no clue to what extent our intelligence agencies have been infiltrated by limp di@ked, dim lib, wonders. Evidently, it is considerable.

[Bob J]

There is some good analysis here but one statement sent chills down my spine.

“But that only means that we now have an “intelligence community” that acts as an authority unto itself, and cannot be trusted to obey its political masters,...”

WTF? Why would we want an intelligence community that “obeys it’s masters” instead of offering stark and forthright analysis?

I always shade my opinions by wondering what Hillary would do if she was in power. In any context this is a chilling statement from the WSJ.

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

This NIE just makes the U.S. government in general, and its intelligence apparata in particular, look wholly incompetent. I hope President Bush is proud of his folks in DOS and the OGAs.

[BIGLOOK]

Good morning, Ernest.
Hate to think of a Shadow Government....too conspiratorial... but career holdovers from previous administrations in State, the CIA, Justice and other bureaucracies have been causing the Bush administration problems since the beginning. We know some of their names and discover new ones regularly; Wilson, Plame, Berger the Archivist and lately the authors of this NIE.

'A new broom sweeps clean' is a little ditty the GWB ignored and now he has a mess in his house.

(Out the door in 5.)

[Grampa Dave]

I remember that very well.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Putting some things together on this thread...Stratfor has my head spinning....

Abolish the CIA ( Destroying the interrogation tapes amounts to mutiny and treason. -
Slate ^ | Monday, Dec. 10, 2007, at 12:09 PM ET | By Christopher Hitchens

I know it is Hitchens...but go further on the thread...am adding more...got to find the Blog of Friedman for a VERY DIFFERENT opinion of why the NIE was revealed....heavy details....

[Marine_Uncle]

Thanks for the ooraging. Of course this NIE when carefully examined does not lead to the conclusion Iran is some innocent victim of circumstances. It is just being misused by those that have an agenda other then keeping Iran on the coals.

[The Sons of Liberty]

Look’s more and more like Dubya isn’t going to do anything about Iran before he leaves office, and we know the dims will look the other way and pretend everything is OK. I guess we’ll find out for sure that the NIE is way off when Tel Aviv and probably some European city disappear in mushroom clouds.

[AFreeBird]

I think this NIE was leaked to have this whole thing investigated in Congress, thereby planting it in the Democrats head they need to take action.

If Bush took some course of action, he would be wrong...even if Iran launched missiles against Israel, Bush would get blamed, etc. So just change the debate and get all the evidence out in the open.

Not to mention France, Germany, Britain and Israel saying the NIE is nuts and that Iran IS a threat.

Bush got burned being the front runner on Iraqastan, so I can see him sitting back a little and letting the others figure it our for themselves this time around.