Was General Ashgari a Double Agent?

American Thinker ^ | December 06, 2007 | James Lewis

[neverdem]

In March of 2007 Iranian Revolutionary Guards General Ali-Reza Ashgari defected to the West through Turkey. General Ashgari is the highest-ranking defector from Iran ever, a huge bonanza for our understanding of the Khomeinist regime's intentions and capabilities with regard to nuclear weapons.

If he is for real. Troubling circumstantial evidence suggests that he is not.

This week, a public summary of the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran made worldwide headlines.  Contrary to endless public statements made over three decades from Khomeini to Ahmadi-Nejad, contrary to the 2005 NIE, contrary to the recent UN report, and contrary to Israeli intelligence, the new NIE claims that Iran's nuclear weapons program was stopped in 2003 and, by implication, has not been restarted since then.

We're safe! Nothing more to worry about from maniacs with nukes.

So -- what happened between the National Intelligence Estimate of 2005 and today's NIE to give the US intelligence community "high confidence" to confirm an end to Iran's nuclear bomb program in 2003?

The defection of General Ashgari (along with several other high-ranking Guard officers) is a plausible explanation for the new Intelligence Estimate. We don't know what Ashgari reported to Western intelligence. Chances are that much of his information was accurate, if out of date. He would need to give that much to gain credibility. 

But there is a famous history of the CIA jumping on Soviet double agents -- Golitsyn and Nosenko -- who poisoned the wells of US intelligence with great success.  These phony Soviet defectors could be the model the Iranians are emulating.

Iran might have dropped phony defections to give ammunition to the many liberal opponents of President Bush's Iran policy, who are sprinkled throughout our intelligence and foreign policy apparatus.

The new NIE might be the result of Iranian phony defector reports. Since we seem to have very poor human intelligence inside the Khomeinist regime, the Guard defectors (there were several of them) might be greeted by Democrat partisans in the bureaucracy like manna from heaven. The new phony intelligence would confirm their passionately held biases - a routine technique in disinformation ops.

Dropping phony defectors would be a smart strategy, and the A'jad regime prides itself on such things.

Defectors can paralyze US intelligence. It's nearly impossible to tell truths from lies or paranoid exaggerations, a maze that famously destroyed the career of CIA counter-intelligence chief James Jesus Angleton in the 1960s. Phony defectors do not even have to be believed, as long as they confuse US intelligence enough to undermine truthful information. They kick sand in our eyes.

A few public facts suggest that Ashgari may have been a plant. He left a wife and children behind in Iran, ready blackmail victims to control his behavior abroad. His defection coincided with other high Guard officers disappearing, perhaps to confirm Ashgari's phony message. In Tehran there was no visible purge, or even public expressions of heightened suspicions, after the spectacular loss of face due to a high-level defection -- contrary to Ahmadi-Nejad current accusations of "treason" against his pragmatist enemies in the regime. And finally, after the biggest (presumed) scandal revealing treachery in the trusted Guards, there was no loss of power or prestige for the massive Guards faction of the regime.

Ahmadi-Nejad just seemed to shrug off the Ashgari defection. The obvious question is why?

According to former Reagan Administration CIA official Herbert Meyer, writing yesterday in American Thinker, "It's no exaggeration to say that Iran holds the key to whether we will have a nuclear war." 

The stakes could not be higher.

James Lewis blogs at dangeroustimes.wordpress.com/

[caisson71]

It puzzles me as to the amount of credibility given one “intelligence” report, especially since the origination of the report is suspect - Reid says he requested it - and the authors of the report seem to contradict what they reported mere months ago. After our intelligence agencies destroyed much of their credibility, have shown they are infiltrated by partisan traitors and have shown various degrees of incompetence and dereliction of duty, some are too eager to accept certain reports as biblical truths.

[Holicheese]

I agree. If the congress knew this a few years ago, why didn’t they say anything?

[Holicheese]

I think its time for Bush and the Republicans to call Shenanigans on the Dems.

[Waco]

Seems like N.K. Iran, Syria etc. etc. are each working on a part of a nuke and moving their part to a country where it will be assembled, while each is saying “ No we aren’t in the nuke business, see?”

[RDTF]

I’m tired of holding my breath for anything close to that

[RobinOfKingston]

In my very humble opinion, we have such incompetent and feckless nincompoops in charge of this countries well-being that the only way we will know when something is going to blow up is the big noise we hear j-u-u-u-st after it blows up. Figurative or literally. The finger pointing will be on a Biblical scale.

[G8 Diplomat]

Nice tagline

[coloradan]

Your tagline isn’t bad either.

[jamese777]

National Intelligence Estimates can only be declassified and released in public upon the order of the Director of National Intelligence. The current DNI is Vice Admiral John Michael “Mike” McConnell, USN Ret.

John Michael “Mike” McConnell was appointed by President Bush and he has served as the United States Director of National Intelligence since February, 2007.

[quant5]

Our dumbed-down multicultural intelligence agencies take years to uncover spies these days. Let’s all believe evereone is just nice, that would be nice wouldn’t it? We can nicely talk to him and ask him nicely if he is a double-agent. Then perhaps he will nicely tell us the truth.

[kitchen]

Iran might have dropped phony defections to give ammunition to the many liberal opponents of President Bush's Iran policy, who are sprinkled throughout our intelligence and foreign policy apparatus.

Sprinkled?

Major understatement, James?

[neverdem]

The Key Question about the NIE's Key Judgment

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From time to time, I’ll ping on noteworthy articles about politics, foreign and military affairs. FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks neverdem!

[AdmSmith]

Asghari’s wife and family had left Iran just before he went missing and that he had sold his house in Tehran in December, all — the Iranians would have us believe — by happenstance. For all intents, it appears that Asghari’s defection was carefully planned and executed.
http://www.leatherneck.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-43171.html

I have more trust in Steve Kappes than in James Lewis.

[nuconvert]

If I recall correctly, he had 2 wives. Or at least that was the story that came out at the time. One left and one stayed in Iran. The one that stayed put on the public performance about his disappearance.

As for Asghari’s defection and the info in this NIE report, from the date that they’re reporting that our Intel got new info, I don’t think the timing coincides. His defection was months earlier. Not that his info couldn’t have been combined with info from others (maybe from some we caught in Iraq).

Was General Ashgari a Double Agent? Who knows. Hopefully our guys have been able to figure that out by now.

I do have my doubts about the reliability of info we get from Iran, however. Especially considering some of the people I read about who apparently have the ear of politicians and others in Washington. (particularly, State Dept)

[mcshot]

And Hiltlery already was “unaware of that”.

[FreedomPoster]

I wish it wasn’t so, but I fear you are correct.

[PGalt]

Interesting. Thanks for posting & linking.