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Posted on 12/04/2007 8:18:30 AM PST by GOPGuide
With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucuses, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Rudy Giuliani has fallen back in the pack in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani’s support has fallen to 18% and four other candidates are within six percentage points of the lead. Mike Huckabee is enjoying an amazing surge and now shares the top spot with Giuliani at 18%. Close behind are John McCain at 14%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Mitt Romney at 12%. Ron Paul attracts 7% of Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide and no other Republican candidate reaches 2% (see recent daily numbers).
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Clinton continues to lose ground as well. The former First Lady now attracts 35% of the vote, down from 41% a week ago and 43% two weeks ago. Today’s result matches the lowest level of support recorded for Clinton since Rasmussen Reports began daily tracking in mid-July (see recent daily numbers).
While Clinton has lost ground, Barack Obama’s support remains steady at 23%. John Edwards gained two points on Tuesday to 17% while Bill Richardson is the top choice for 7% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters nationwide. No other Democratic candidate tops 3% (see recent daily numbers).
Results for the Presidential Tracking Poll are obtained through nightly telephone interviews and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Next update scheduled for Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. Eastern.
Among the GOP candidates, it’s hard to know which trend line is the most significant—the decline of Giuliani’s support, the Huckabee surge, or the McCain comeback.
It remains unclear whether the current round of Huck-a-mania is nothing more than Mike Huckabee’s fifteen minutes of fame of if the former Arkansas Governor has a serious chance of winning the Republican nomination. But, there is no doubt that he has shaken up the race-- Huckabee is also a frontrunner in Iowa, essentially tied for second in New Hampshire, and has pulled to within a single percentage point of Hillary Clinton in a general election match-up. On Wednesday, Rasmussen Reports will release data on a Huckabee-Clinton match-up in Arkansas. Later in the week, new polling data for the South Carolina primary will be released.
For the Democrats, polling in Iowa continues to show a toss-up between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Clinton still leads in New Hampshire but her lead has declined to single digits. Nationally, just 24% think that Iowa and New Hampshire voters are “lucky” to vote first. Nearly twice as many believe the state’s voters are unlucky because they have to put up with all the campaigning during the holiday season.
Today, Rasmussen Reports has released new state polling data showing Colorado to be very competitive in the 2008 Presidential election. That state’s Senate race between Bob Schaffer (R) and Mark Udall (D) is also a toss-up. In Arizona, the big story is John McCain’s comeback. His favorable ratings fell below the 50% mark during the Senate debate on immigration but he is now back in much more comfortable territory.
Rudy Giuliani is still seen as the most electable Republican. McCain, Romney, and Huckabee are essentially tied for second in this category.
Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats believe that Clinton is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That’s down from 81% a month ago. Sixty-six percent (66%) believe Obama is at least somewhat likely to win it all and 58% say the same about Edwards.
See Rasmussen Reports general election match-ups and other key stats for all Republican and Democratic candidates.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily. Today is the first day of regular weekend updates.
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
He is a Dem - he just hides it better.
barf - I won’t vote for McCain either.
I hope not. I worked for a guy once who had been a POW in Vietnam for an extended period. Nice enough guy, but let’s just say his issues had issues and leave it at that. I would not be comfortable with someone having the nuclear football whom I did not consider fully mentally competent. And McCain’s a decent guy, and sometimes even sort of conservative, almost, maybe, but he’s not mentally competent.
Besides, we all know that in his heart of hearts he wants amnesty. He’s playing a border hawk right now to get primary votes, but that’s not where his real sympathies lie.
You make a joke about viagra but that's exactly how many, many people will see and joke about him. While some say he appears "Presidential" many others will see him as old, tired and sick. If nominated we will have even more "old" jokes than we had when Bob Dole got the nomination. And just wait for the first "gaff"... It will be much worse than when Dole forgot which city he was in. Reagan did a great job handling the "old" stereotype and maybe there's hope that Thompson could turn around the stereotypes. I'd love to be wrong but Thompson is not Reagan and it's not 1984 any more. In fact many of the current voters were in diapers or not even born when Reagan was President.
Rudy’s mistress stories in general should be hurting him. If he was a Democrat (yes, I know an argument could be made that he is definitely a liberal) we would be raking him over the coals. Instead he gets a free pass from a lot of people.
“No, Huckabee is taking Romney out and nothing is stopping Giuliani’s free fall. That creates a best-case scenario for Fred Thompson.”
Yes, it does. And Thompson will fail to take advantage of it, leaving one man standing, Huckabee....unless your next alternative is Ron Paul.
Until you all understand that Huckabee is talking to the vast middle, and not to a bunch of “seal the borders, they’re coming!” fanatics, you just won’t understand why he’s surging in the polls.
Take his tack on Guantanamo. I really disagree with him on that one, but how many people have been convinced by the press that it should be closed. I’d wager that well over half of registered Republicans would vote to close it. If they’re saying that we should run terrorists through the criminal courts, as Clinton advocated, they’re wrong. But if they’re saying Guantanamo is hard to defend given the press it’s gotten, they’re right.
The real Guantanamo issue is: Do we move terrorists into the criminal justice system or not? Not whether or not Guantanamo remains open. Hell, pen them up in Iraq now that the security situation has improved so much. Heh, of course then the terrorists themselves might vote to keep Guantanamo open.
Huckabee is a master politician and is going to take the nomination. Statements like the one on Guantanamo only increase his odds of winning the Presidency...and he knows this.
I’m as concerned as anyone as to where he really stands on a lot of issues, but not because he won’t tell us. We just have to get by all the propaganda about his Arkansas record and start asking him where he stands. He’s the one candidate running who will just tell us. And he’s willing to concede that his stance will cost him votes with some Republicans. But at least we’ll know where he stands. Try that with Hillary, or Rudy or Mitt for that matter.
Rudy would be Hillary-Light.
Folks are figuring it out.
Guiliani, Huckabee, and McCain are 100% MSM driven. Giuliani has been proped up by NYC Fox News since day one.
McCain is just left over 2000.
Agree. We all know instinctively that Huckabee’s rise is temporary, and that Rudy and Mitt are , quite simply, flawed candidates. Fred’s patience will pay off.
leaving one man standing...Huckabee.
Well, and McCain. I’ll grant that, but I have a hard time believing the Republicans he’s back-stabbed so many times in the past are going to nominate him. The press wants him, but only until he’s the nominee. Then they’ll unload on him.
LLS
Why do you suppose the media is giddy over Mike? He is a sure loser. Some Democrats are telling people to post and write and call in to show support of Huckabee. It sure is not to help the Republicans.
I predict that Huckabee will stumble next as his "conservatism" is called into question. That will have to be FRED's time to break. If he doesn't Fred is done.
Rudy’s baggage would provide a field day for Hillary, he makes her sordid paste look clean by comparison.
I’m not sure who can beat Hillary, but I know that Hillary would beat Rootie.
Huck’s fall is exactly what Fred is waiting for. Slow and steady while everyone else self-destructs. There is still time.
Huckabee can enjoy it while it lasts. When the investigations begin, he will be toast.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/op-ed/editorial2/20071203-9999-mz1ed3bottom.html
“I don’t see Huckabee winning anywhere but perhaps Iowa.”
I concur. And since a win in Iowa is basically meaningless these days, so what? I think the Huckster’s 15 minutes are going to be up pretty soon.
How was Huckabee, in general, received on Fox News? Did not watch the show.
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