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An Assessment Jars a Foreign Policy Debate About Iran
New York Times ^ | December 3, 2007 | STEVEN LEE MYERS

Posted on 12/04/2007 12:31:34 AM PST by america4vr

Rarely, if ever, has a single intelligence report so completely, so suddenly, and so surprisingly altered a foreign policy debate here.

An administration that had cited Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons as the rationale for an aggressive foreign policy — as an attempt to head off World War III, as President Bush himself put it only weeks ago — now has in its hands a classified document that undercuts much of the foundation for that approach.

The impact of the National Intelligence Estimate’s conclusion — that Iran had halted a military program in 2003, though it continues to enrich uranium, ostensibly for peaceful uses — will be felt in endless ways at home and abroad.

It will certainly weaken international support for tougher sanctions against Iran, as a senior administration official grudgingly acknowledged. And it will raise questions, again, about the integrity of America’s beleaguered intelligence agencies, including whether what are now acknowledged to have been overstatements about Iran’s intentions in a 2005 assessment reflected poor tradecraft or political pressure.

Seldom do those agencies vindicate irascible foreign leaders like President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who several weeks ago said there was “no evidence” that Iran was building a nuclear weapon, dismissing the American claims as exaggerated.

The biggest change, though, could be its effect on President Bush’s last year in office, as well as on the campaign to replace him. Until Monday, 2008 seemed to be a year destined to be consumed, at least when it comes to foreign policy, by the prospects of confrontation with Iran.

There are still hawks in the administration,Vice President Dick Cheney chief among them, who view Iran with deep suspicion.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government
KEYWORDS: fuhrerahmadinejad; iran; islamofascism; nuclearjihad
“The way this will play is that the intelligence community has admitted it was wrong,” said Jon B. Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “So why should we believe them now?”

What sort of bizarre, convoluted logic is this? Mr. Alterman, that is so incredibly cogent of you, your logic and reason simply irrefutable. It's quite obvious why they pay you the big bucks at CSIS, your geopolitical insight is absolutely brilliant. We just might as well close down our entire intelligence gathering capabilities saving all those billions of dollars because, as Mr. Alterman has so insightfully intimated, what's the point? Why should anyone believe them now? < Rod Serling mode off. >

I wondered what sort of organization this was, CSIS, what political perspective,philosophy did they espouse, certain that
Ramsey Clark, Moonbatism's very own Prodigal Son and his philosophical cohort, white-trash's
answer to Jesse Jackson/Peanut-Farmer from Plains,
would be prominently placed on their masthead but this
was not the case.

Here is an excerpt from the CSIS website describing itself as "bi-partisan" {sic]

CSIS was launched at the height of the Cold War, dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation and prosper as a people. During the following four decades, CSIS has grown to become one of the nation’s and the world’s preeminent public policy institutions on U.S. and international security........

From its beginning, CSIS has been committed to bipartisan problem solving. While partisan competition advances ideas, America prospers when policy leaders develop a consensus across the political spectrum. CSIS actively unites leaders from both parties to join in shared problem solving.

1 posted on 12/04/2007 12:31:36 AM PST by america4vr
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To: america4vr

Well I don’t work for the CSIS, but I’d like some of these so called experts to explain to me why, if Iran has no nuclear weapons program, why they are so hell bent on enriching uranium.

Oh, I know that Iran has the Russian-built nuclear power reactor at Buseshr, but the enriched uranium Iran is making CAN’T be used in that reactor. It is not properly formulated, and the Russians are not giving the formulation details to the Iranians. That’s not part of their deal. So - the uranium the Iranians are enriching must be for one of the OTHER nuclear power plants under construction in Iran.

Oh! There AREN’T any? Well, that’s a different story.

Maybe they are enriching it to store, holding on to it until the day comes when they DO have a domestic nuclear power reactor they CAN use it in.

Oh! You say that the nuclear fuel decays and over the ten yearsor more that will pass before any possible home brewed nuclear reactor could be ready for fuel, the uranium being enriched now would no longer be usable?

Well! That’s very interesting.

I wonder what the enriched uranium could be used for then. After all, the experts are quite sure it isn’t for use in nuclear weapons.

Wanna bet?

Because that’s just what were doing right now, playing Russian Roulette. Maybe Iranian Roulette, with bullets in every chamber but one. Big time betting in a losing game.


2 posted on 12/04/2007 1:46:09 AM PST by John Valentine
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To: John Valentine

I thought you might find my comments posted yesterday about Ahmadinejad’s Offering Arab Gulf states a security pact

Ahmadinejad offers Gulf Arab states security pact ( Will they accept?)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1934021/posts
My comments are post #12 and #13

#12
You know, I’m thinking how Shiites, approximately 12-15% of Muslims and the Sunni have had a history of vituperative, venomous hatred that goes on today as a consequence of the Iraqi war.

Now, why should the Arab world, predominantly Sunni,entertain the notion of being protected by their historical nemesis???

I believe that the security pact Ahmadinejad is referring to and offering is one that is enabled when Iran as Ahmadinejad believes, goes nuclear. This is what he is offering and this why the Sunni sit down at the table with him. Otherwise it makes no sense.


3 posted on 12/04/2007 2:08:08 AM PST by america4vr (The ebb and flow of empires have come and gone but America shall forever reign supreme.)
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To: america4vr

Israel will probably not be happy about this fabricated report.


4 posted on 12/04/2007 2:12:23 AM PST by Wiz
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To: John Valentine
What are the sources of information for the NIE? Does the US have any Humint at the highest levels of the Iranian regime? Does the US have any Humint at the highest levels of the Iranian nuclear project? Saddam kept the info on his WMD's within a very, very tight circle.

So, we don't know intentions, do we know capabilities? What have the Iranians built and what are they doing with what they built? What kind of disinformation campaign are the Iranians running? Word on the street is that the nuclear facility that the Israelis blew up in Syria was not a copy of a NorKo reactor, but was a nuclear-bomb-building facility. Where did the Syrians get the goods to start the forming and flaking and preparation of plutonium in order to build bombs? NorKo or, rather and Iran?

What has been US Intelligence's record in correcting uncovering the state of any nuclear power's nuclear program before the set off a bomb?

Nazi Germany
Soviet Union
Red China
France
Israel
South Africa
India
Pakistan
A Q Khan
North Korea
Iraq
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Al Qaeda

I could list some other countries. Have US Intelligence been correct a single time?

5 posted on 12/04/2007 2:16:50 AM PST by Jabba the Nutt (Just laugh at them!)
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To: John Valentine
"So - the uranium the Iranians are enriching must be for one of the OTHER nuclear power plants under construction in Iran."

Yes. Here's some related news.

Iran produces nuclear fuel pellets [for heavy water reactor]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1930458/posts
6 posted on 12/04/2007 2:24:29 AM PST by familyop
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To: Wiz
On the FR latest articles page former Prime Minister Barak says what everybody knows, namely that Iran has certianly re-started their nuclear program. Please also see my previous comment about what lies beneath Ahmadnejad's offer of security pact with Arab Gulf states.
As far as Israel being unhappy about the report, I don't think it's a question of Israel being happy or not, The report will have no impact on whether Israel attacks Iran. Israel will act on what it determines to be its national security. The last time Israel puts its faith in another country's assessment of its security it found itself on the brink of destruction.
I'm referring to the Yom Kippur War in 1973 when it held back mobilizing its army in fear it would appear a threatening gesture when re-assured Egypt and Syria troop movement was merely military exercises and
7 posted on 12/04/2007 2:27:34 AM PST by america4vr (The ebb and flow of empires have come and gone but America shall forever reign supreme.)
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To: america4vr

So, then, is this report another example of the shadow government?


8 posted on 12/04/2007 2:30:39 AM PST by patj
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To: america4vr

let’s see, what else happened in 2003? hmmm, the invasion of Iraq?

tsk, tsk, that there might be a connection must not be spoken....


9 posted on 12/04/2007 4:44:42 AM PST by Archytekt
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To: america4vr
These are supplied by the Iranian "Mullocracy" to terrorists in Iraq.

They are killing our troops.

No, they are not nuclear.

Yes, they are an act of war.

Forget Iranian "nuke" sites. Obliterate Ahmanutjob and his Mullocrats!!!


10 posted on 12/04/2007 7:00:07 AM PST by TXnMA ("Allah": Satan's current alias...)
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To: TXnMA
I make reference to them not as the Mullocrats but as the Three M's of the Apocalypse the Mad Mullahs of Mayhem!
11 posted on 12/04/2007 8:22:29 AM PST by america4vr (The ebb and flow of empires have come and gone but America shall forever reign supreme.)
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To: america4vr

Iran is making a pitch for a “Protection Contract” on the Gulf States. Iran has often bragged how they have a fifth column already in place in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, and Bahrain. I’m sure that Iran is telling the Gulf States that they have no nuclear programme, but once they have the bomb, they would keep the Gulf States under its protective umbrella but only if they turn away from their de-facto alliance with the West. The Iranians won’t get anywhere with this line.

On the subject of enriched uranium, here’s a hypothetical:

If you were a nuclear ambitious country, what would you want in your hip pocket, a set drawings or a ready supply of weapons grade enriched uranium?

Yep, a 50th percentile fifth grader would get that answer right. But not the State Department of the United States of America.


12 posted on 12/08/2007 1:18:54 AM PST by John Valentine
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To: John Valentine
John Valentine, you are brilliant! Geniuses think alike(you and I).
I said the very same thing a few days ago at this post.

Ahmadinejad offers Gulf Arab states security pact ( Will they accept?)

My comments
You know, I'm thinking how Shiites, approximately 12-15% of Muslims and the Sunni have had a history of vituperative, venomous hatred that goes on today as a consequence of the Iraqi war.

Now, why should the Arab world, predominantly Sunni,entertain the notion of being protected by their historical nemesis??? I believe that the security pact Ahmadinejad is referring to and offering is one that is enabled when Iran as Ahmadinejad believes, goes nuclear. This is what he is offering and this why the Sunni sit down at the table with him. Otherwise it makes no sense.

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach I believe the Iran is offering the Gulf States a security pact as a consequence of only if/when Iran acquires the nuclear capacity to offer them protection under their Iranian nuclear umbrella. This is the only thing that makes sense.

I believe the Iran is offering the Gulf States a security pact as a consequence of only if/when
Iran acquires the nuclear capacity to offer them protection under their Iranian nuclear umbrella.
This is the only thing that makes sense.

To: america4vr

I believe you have nailed it! 17 posted on 12/03/2007 1:45:54 PM EST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)

13 posted on 12/08/2007 3:56:49 AM PST by america4vr (The ebb and flow of empires have come and gone but America shall forever reign supreme.)
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To: america4vr
Read the rest of the NIE. The opening sentence is at complete odds with the report's own assessment. The distinction between military and civilian nuclear production is farcical as both are controlled by Iran's military and both have the same objective in view. Iran is a deadly threat and there is no evidence to believe that has disappeared. Iran's genocidal ambitions towards Israel still remains the regime's sworn objective.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

14 posted on 12/08/2007 4:01:21 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
No one at all believes Iran is seeking nuclear capability for peaceful purposes.
No one believes Iran abandoned its nuclear objectives in 2003 or ever. That
why the report is so deeply troubling. Stopping Iran militarily was the last,
best hope. I worry about Iran's nefarious, diabolical designs and the bleak
prospects to resolve this amicably (meaning no nuclear capacity for the Mullahs.)
15 posted on 12/08/2007 4:35:59 AM PST by america4vr (The ebb and flow of empires have come and gone but America shall forever reign supreme.)
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