The New, Suddenly Correct, NIE on Iran

Flopping Aces ^ | December 3, 2007 at 4:00 PM | Curt

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Deja vu?  Remember a few weeks ago when that McClellan story came out in which he supposedly said he was lied to about the Plame affair?  I wrote then:

Isn't it curious how the left constantly wailed about Scott McClellan allegedly lying during his press conferences, but now that he is saying something that smells like trash talk about Bush, he is suddenly a truth teller.

And now when a new NIE is released to the public saying that Iran has stopped its nuclear weapons program, NOW the left believes our intelligence agencies. 

For the last year the left has been all over the intelligence, saying that its all drummed up to let Bush go to war against another country.  Not anymore, now our NIE's are the whole truth and nothing but the truth:

Let’s not lose sight of the context of this news. The President has, on more than one recent occasion, talked about “World War III” with Iran. The Vice President has been dusting off his 2002 speeches, blustering that the U.S. “cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills its grandest ambitions.” The man responsible for shaping Rudy Giuliani’s foreign policy vision believes anyone opposed to immediate miltary strikes in Iran are guilty of “an irresponsible complacency that I think is comparable to the denial in the early ’30s of the intentions of Hitler.”

But, once again, they’re all wrong.

Funny huh?

Here is the news:

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

And the final conclusions.....

****************************snip***************************

I'm not buying it and Cliff May gives me even more reason not to buy it:

A friend, formerly at the CIA, tells me that while this NIE does confirm Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons in 2002 and 2003, its conclusions that as to why it may have stopped the program and why this halt may have continued are debateable and speculation.  These KJs [Key Judgments] have too much political spin. This assessment was strongly influenced by two hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials who oversaw it, both former State officials who fought tooth and nail against Bush WMD policies, especially Iran.

Surprise surprise.  VIPS at work once again?  It smells like more leaks by the VIPS types ala Plame and friends, trying to influence either the tactics used by this Administrations to stop Iran from getting a nuke, or to influence the upcoming elections.  Even the NYT's notices:

they [the conclusions] come in the middle of a presidential campaign during which a possible military strike against Iran’s nuclear program has been discussed.

This whole NIE smells to high heaven.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From the NRO Corner:

Monday, December 03, 2007
Re: Iranian Nukes [Cliff May]

****************************

Jonah, the purpose of this NIE is to prevent Bush from using military force during the remainder of his term  to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program.

A friend, formerly at the CIA, tells me that while this NIE

does confirm Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons in 2002 and 2003, its conclusions that as to why it may have stopped the program and why this halt may have continued are debateable and speculation.  These KJs [Key Judgments] have too much political spin. This assessment was strongly influenced by two hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials who oversaw it, both former State officials who fought tooth and nail against Bush WMD policies, especially Iran. 

12/03 03:24 PM

[ken21]

mcclellan’s the son of:

carole keeton strayhorn,

a former texas state comptroller, governor wannabe, and daughter of an austin mayor of note.

[familyop]

That’s cool.

Iran produces nuclear fuel pellets [for heavy water reactor]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1930458/posts

S. Korea, U.S. verifying reports on test of new N.K. missile in Iran: source
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1834307/posts
(4,000 kilometer range—will reach London and the Vatican—May 16th, 2007)

Who needs western Europe anyway? Besides, we can have a much more exciting and longer war and oil shortage, if we allow Iran to build her nukes.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Interesting Group.....

Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity

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Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), formed in January 2003 "to speak out on the use of intelligence to justify the war," is "a coast-to-coast enterprise; mostly intelligence officers from analysis side of CIA, but Operations side also represented. "[1][2][3]

VIPS Steering Group

• Kathleen McGrath Christison, Santa Fe, NM
• William Christison, Santa Fe, NM
• David MacMichael, Linden, VA
• Raymond McGovern, Arlington, VA
• Richard Beske, San Diego, CA
• Patrick G. Eddington, Alexandria, VA

Other Alleged VIPS Members

• Eugene Betit[4]
• Ray Close[5]
• Larry Johnson[6]

Correspondence

• 7 February 2003: VIPS MEMORANDUM sent to President George Walker Bush (published in Common Dreams).
• 15 February 2003: VIPS: "CIA says NO. U.S. Intelligence Officers Say Bush Out of His Mind on Iraq War" by Ray McGovern for NowToronto.com.
• 16 March 2003: VIPS MEMORANDUM: "Memorandum for Confused Americans. Cooking Intelligence for War" posted at LI Politics Message Board Forum by Ray McGovern: Appended and translated March 6, 2003, transcript from German Channel One's Panorama interview with former CIA officers, including Ray McGovern and David MacMichael, "to discuss the use/abuse of intelligence to support the US administration's case for attacking Iraq."
• 18 March 2003: VIPS "Memo to the President: Forgery, Hyperbole, Half-Truth: A Problem" posted Timothy D. O'Hare on March 20, 2003 -- "Veteran US Spooks Strongly Doubt Bush's Iraq Case" -- at ForeignPolicy.com.
• 26 April 2003: VIPS Memorandum: "The Stakes in the Search for Weapons of Mass Destruction" by David MacMichael and Ray McGovern; "Weapons of Mass Distraction: Where? Find? Plant?" in Scoop.
• 1 May 2003: "Intelligence Officers Challenge Bush" - VIPS Memorandum for the President: "Intelligence Fiasco" at BNfP.org; Also.
• 17 May 2003: "The Moment of Lies Has Arrived" by Hwaa Irfan, Staff Writer, IslamOnline: VIPS credited with bringing "to light" the forged Iraqi documents that were "supposed to provide evidence for Iraq's weapons of mass destruction."
• 19 May 2003: VIPS Letter sent via fax to Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the United Nations: "We Are Perplexed at the US Refusal to Permit the Return of UN Inspectors to Iraq" (published in Dissident Voice, May 21, 2003). Also at Truthout.
• 25 May 2003: VIPS: Opinion: "U.N. needs inspectors to return to Iraq", Birmingham News.
• 14 July 2003: "Cheney Must Go", an open letter to Pres. Bush published by Salon.com.

News Stories

• 14 March 2003: "Ex-CIA Officers Defy Bush Administration" by John J. Lumpkin, Associated Press Writer.
• 17 March 2003: "Ex-CIA Accuse Bush of Manipulating Iraq Evidence", AP: "The 25-member group, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, composed mostly of former CIA analysts along with a few operational agents, is urging employees inside the intelligence agency to break the law and leak any information they have that could show the Bush administration is engineering the release of evidence to match its penchant for war."
• 22 March 2003: "CIA Officials Doubted Documents Linking Iraq to Efforts to Purchase Uranium from Niger" and communicated those doubts to the Bush Administration, reports the Washington Post, but President Bush nevertheless cited the allegations in his State of the Union address.
• 4 April 2003: "Some worry U.S. may bend facts for policy", SunSpot.net(cached article).
• 18 April 2003: "US should be 'embarrassed' over failure to find WMDs: ex-spies", AFP.
• 18 April 2003: "Former CIA Agents: Not Finding WMD in Iraq, Embarrassing to US" by Republicons Staff.
• 26 May 2003: "CIA: Sinned Against or Sinning?" by B. Raman, South Asia Analysis Group. Items 17 and 18 re VIPS in particular.
• 30 May 2003: "Save Our Spooks" by Nicholas D. Kristof, Op-ed columnist, The New York Times.
• 1 June 2003: "US security men accuse Bush of twisting facts," The International News (Pakistan).
• 3 June 2003: "Story: Ray McGovern of Veterans Intelligence Professionals for Sanity Analyzes Private Conversatino Between Powell and Straw Regarding Iraq's WMDs"; "live" interview with Pacifica's Peacewatch: "Peacewatch talked with Ray McGovern, a 27-year CIA veteran and a member of the steering committee of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity or VIPS. McGovern served as an "All Intelligence Agent" during the Reagan White House."
• 10 June 2003: "Intelligence questions" by Peter H. Stone, National Journal: DCI George J. Tenet "...in a written statement defended intelligence on Iraq, saying that the 'integrity of our process was maintained throughout, and any suggestion to the contrary is simply wrong.' ... Tenet's statement came in response to a memo written to Bush, and posted on some Internet sites, by a group of retired CIA and State analysts known as Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity."
• 23 June 2003: "Will Heads Roll over Faulty Intelligence about Iraq?" in Business Week Onlin, Richard S. Durham, Ed.: "Tenet, a holdover from the William Jefferson Clinton Administration, is caught in the crossfire. 'Most of my colleagues think it's only a matter of time before Tenet is fired,' says Raymond McGovern."
• 2 July 2003: "Veteran Intelligence Professional Ray McGovern: Bush administratiion slanted evidence prior to war"; live interview: "In this commentary for Peace Watch Ray McGovern points to an unusual pattern on the part of Vice President Dick Cheney to visit the CIA headquarters, which he did 27 times prior to the invasion."
• 23 June 2003: "Washington Lied: An Interview with Ray McGovern," Counterpunch.com
• 15 July 2003: "Why We Resigned from VIPS. It's About Policies, Not Personalities" by Kathleen and Bill Christison, CounterPunch.
• 12 April 2004: "Decoding the PDB" by Larry Johnson, TomPaine.com.
• 29 June 2004: "CIA According to Anonymous: New Book Reflects Analyst Outrage," by Ray McGovern, Counterpunch.com.

---

Extracted from Silence Is Unacceptable by M. Steven Kenniston, The Modern Tribune, March 30, 2003.

"In the months preceding war our President flatly refused to grant an audience to any anti-war organization, including Veterans for Common Sense, Veterans for Peace, and Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. Many of the men and women in these groups have experienced the horror of war first-hand and have commanded troops and served their country with dedication and valor. Yet when they sought to voice their concerns that the terrible costs of this war and its potentially disastrous consequences were not justified, they were rebuffed. Our President chose instead to listen to the counsel of a group of reactionary ideologues recruited from neo-conservative think tanks, such as the American Enterprise Institute and the Project for the New American Century. These arrogant and authoritative men advocate the use of military force as an acceptable political tool to achieve their goal of a New World Order dominated by American military and economic interests. They identified Iraq as a military target with the goal of regime change years before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. These men crafted the foreign policy behind the President's belligerent rhetoric, which sabotaged any hope of a diplomatic solution or possibility of building a broad coalition of nations. Saying that you're either with us or you're against us and that we are prepared to act unilaterally and preemptively doesn't leave much room for debate."

[edit]

Contact

Ray McGovern at:
rmcgovern@slschool.org"[7] or
vips@counterpunch.org

---

[edit]

Other Related SourceWatch Resources

• cooked intelligence
• media control

[edit]

External Links

Blogs that mention this article

• The New, Suddenly Correct, NIE on Iran
• The New, Suddenly Correct, NIE on Iran

[HisKingdomWillAbolishSinDeath]

When they say peace and safety, then comes sudden destruction.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Time to post this again:

*********************************************************

There is a book (now available in paperback ):

***********************

Unholy Alliance: Radical Islam and the American Left
(Hardcover)
by David Horowitz

********************************************************

And reviews:

****************************************

Editorial Reviews

Rich Lowry, Editor National Review

David Horowitz is synonymous with pyrotechnics. A historian and polemicist of the first order, he is paid the ultimate compliment --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

Davis Hanson, Author, Ripples of Battle

An original look at those who want us to fail in the Middle East, both at home and abroad. The --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

***********************************************************

See all Editorial Reviews

Fascinating Analysis of Leftist Goals, August 13, 2006

Reviewer: N. Sincerity - See all my reviews

A former 1960s radical, Horowitz is well-acquainted with the Leftist mindset. In this book, he strives to explain the modern alliance between left wing progressivists and radical Islamofascists. He argues that this alliance is based on a common desire to destroy Western capitalism. Leftist sympathy with Islamofascist ideas makes no sense from an intellectual point of view, given that countries ruled by radical Islamists are among the most racist, sexist, theocratic states in the world today. However, Leftists have recognized that they can benefit politically from destructive terrorist attacks on the Western world. A West under attack can be made to turn on its leaders in fear and desperation (as they did in Spain after the Madrid train bombings). Only once people reject current government structures can the Left execute its anti-capitalist revolution and build a new reality that mirrors the Leftist view of utopia.

The complete and utter idealogical hypocrisy of the Islamofascist-Leftist alliance is distressing, but as Horowitz reminds us,

Leftists radicals truly believe the ends justify the means.

***************************************

[PhilDragoo]

And I have it on good faith from New York Times stringer and Pulitzer Prize winner William Duranty that Joseph Stalin never starved a single Ukranian let alone the ten million of which he is accused.

This whole Iran nuclear crisis is just another Wag the Dog bumper sticker by the reckless cowboy Boosh.

Khomenei and Ahmadinejad only want peace--what is the real threat of chaos is the uncovered hair of Condoleezza Rice--such exposed female hair emits radiation which drives men mad.

All we are saying is give sharia a chance.

Let them have their centrifuges--just watch what you name your teddy bear.

Priorities.

You have been warned.

Citizens for Blinding America to the Future Jihad

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

News:

BBC: US Democrats want rethink on Iran

****************************

The Democrat leader of the US Senate, Harry Reid, said he hoped the White House would undertake "a diplomatic surge" to engage with Iran.

"I hope this administration reads this report carefully and appropriately adjusts its rhetoric and policy vis-a-vis Iran," said Mr Reid.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Citizens for Blinding America to the Future Jihad

Our friends on the left!

[SierraWasp]

NO!!! I'm with you Ernest!!! This is el stupido to the MAX!!! More Bush battering by the bastards loyal to anti-American leftists embedded in our own Central Intelligence(sic) Agency!!!

I'm not a big bible thumper, but there is a verse in the New Testament that relates to this kind of deviousness by desperadoes in high places... "For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places." (Ephesians 6:12)

Too many inexplicable and despicable things taking shape on the world scene... Some of it taking on metaphysical metamorphosis that are baffling. To me, I'll never understand why the President never swept the government clean while he had a new broom. There are scoundrels and malevolent mischiefmakers right up to the cabinet levels of his government to this danged day!!!

[neodad]

2 thing come to mind - Isreal has agreed to take them out, or, cripple them with falling oil prices. Otherwise, this makes no sense.

[piasa]

[SNIP]...So who are these purported voices for "sanity" and against "politicization"? Blogger William Sjostrom did some online sleuthing, and here's what he found:

VIPS does not seem to have a website, but its email is vips@counterpunch.org, and their open letter appears to have been published at CounterPunch (run by Alexander Cockburn, the Nation columnist), an outfit whose staple is stuff comparing Bush to Hitler. VIPS also published an open letter in opposition to the war at Common Dreams back in February [2003]. The spokesman for VIPS is Raymond McGovern, a retired CIA analyst. McGovern's email is also at CounterPunch. He is giving a briefing today [Tuesday] with Rep. Dennis Kucinich. McGovern has compared the Iraq war to Vietnam, even saying that it could lead to nuclear war. He has charged that if WMDs are found in Iraq, they may well have been planted. He believes Tenet's job is safe because if Tenet were fired, he would reveal that the White House ignored intelligence warnings pre-9/11. McGovern has urged CIA analysts to illegally release classified documents to show what he believes to be true, specifically citing Daniel Ellsberg.

Another member of the VIPS steering committee is William Christison, who among other things believes that the Bush administration is attempting to colonize the Middle East, jointly with Israel. He believes that the war on terror is being used to turn the US into a military dictatorship. He is also a backer of the left-wing UrgentCall, along with people such as Noam Chomsky {VVAW, NION}, Barbara Kingsolver, Julian Bond, and Jonathan Schell.... -----'Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, ' BY JAMES TARANTO , Wednesday, July 16, 2003 2:22 p.m. EDT[/SNIP]

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

More detail:

US: Iran Still Able to Develop Nukes

*************************EXCERPT*********************

Dec 3, 6:21 PM (ET)

By PAMELA HESS

(AP) National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley addresses the media on the findings of the National...
Full Image

WASHINGTON (AP) - Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in the fall of 2003 under international pressure but is continuing to enrich uranium, which means it may still be able to develop a weapon between 2010 and 2015, according to a new U.S. intelligence assessment released Monday.

That finding, part of a new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, is a sharp turnaround from two years ago when U.S. intelligence agencies believed Tehran was determined to develop a nuclear weapons capability and was continuing its weapons development program. It suggests that Iran's decisions are rational and pragmatic, and that Tehran is more susceptible to diplomatic and financial pressure than previously thought, the document concluded.

"Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005," says the unclassified summary of the secret report.

The findings come at a time of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which President Bush has labeled part of an "axis of evil," along with Iraq and North Korea. At an Oct. 17 news conference, Bush said, "If you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them (Iran) from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon."

(AP) This handout IKONOS satellite image, taken June 26, 2007, shows the Natanz Nuclear facility. Iran...
Full Image

Rand Beers, who resigned from Bush's National Security Council just before the Iraq war, said the report should derail any appetite for war on the administration's part, and should reinvigorate regional diplomacy. "The new NIE throws cold water on the efforts of those urging military confrontation with Iran," he said.

Senior intelligence officials said Monday they failed to detect Iran's fall 2003 halt in nuclear weapons development in time to reflect it in the 2005 estimate.

One of the officials said Iran is the most challenging country to spy on - harder even than North Korea, a notoriously closed society. "We put a lot more collection assets against this," the official said, "but gaps remain." The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Some of the changes in the new report reflect the use of "open source" intelligence - public information from sources such as the news media and international organizations. An official said, for example, that photos taken at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility during U.N. inspections in 2002 were particularly useful in assessing the capabilities of the civilian uranium enrichment program.

U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, said the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains "a serious problem." The estimate suggests Bush "has the right strategy: intensified international pressure along with a willingness to negotiate a solution that serves Iranian interests, while ensuring the world will never have to face a nuclear armed Iran," Hadley said. He was less interested in what the 2005 assessment missed than what it got right: that Iran had a covert nuclear program.

[Eagles6]

Makes much more sense than tomorrow’s drive by headlines. I suspect that iran already has a workable nuke and is working on a missile platform to strike Israel with 100% certainty or a route to ship it into a US port with 100% deniability.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

He is giving a briefing today [Tuesday] with Rep. Dennis Kucinich.

Oh Lord....the coots are gonna do it to us!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I agree!

[FFranco]

The NIE should never have been released with these conclusions/speculations. Pres Bush and VP Cheney should have demanded a redo including all the evidence about the threat Iran poses to the US and the World before it was released to the Congress and the public.

With this NIE, the Administration will be forestalled from taking any military action against Iran - probably. If Hillary or another Leftist is elected next fall, that means Iran will be free to complete development of their WMD program and probably World War III.

[piasa]

Alexander Cockburn is related to the ‘journalist’ Patrick Cockburn - Patrick’s the guy who put out the allegation that General Petraeus wants to run for
president.