There is no doubt that we will move from one source of energy to another. The only question is how much time will be involved in doing it and the transition costs involved.
I base it on investments being made RIGHT now in the Boston VC community. It’s a 5-10 year ROI with big payoff for the Hydrogen economy. Honda has a Hydrogen car they are leasing next year, 100 vehicles for six hundred dollars a month. The technology is here and Honda plans for mass roll out (in other words becoming affordable to most consumers by 2012). GM is releasing the Volt, a complete electric car that will take you 40 miles on one charge, seat a family of four and go 65 MPH. There go to market is also 2012. Plus, I hear the pickup speed is awsome :)
Sounds good. We have about 250 million cars [including SUVs and pickups] in the US and another 7 million trucks plus 6 million motorcycles. There is a lot to be replaced along with the infrastructure, i.e., gas stations, repair facilities, etc. And there are homes that rely on heating oil. I still find it hard to believe that this is all going to be done in 20 years. Starting when?
No argument with any of that. Nations such as France and China are being shrewd with France relying on nuclear power and China quickly scaling out the next generation of pebble reactors. If we do not achieve full energy dependance within 20 years it will be because we do not also build out nuclear power.
Given all the hoops we have to go through to get a nuclear power plant approved and built, I wonder how many will actually be put on line in the next 20 years. I believe it takes about ten years from inception to production of energy.
What moves do you see the responsible Arab nations making? They are investing heavily into hard assets of every type and some soft assets such as Wall St. :)
Many of the Gulf countries know that they are running out of oil and must put their money into other investments realizing that they need to replace the lost revenue. The Saudis have enough proven oil reserves to pump out 10 million bbls a day for the next 200 years. They will need the revenue because their population is exploding.
The US will move to other energy sources as a result of market forces. I would much rather see that than have some government mandated solution that could send us down the wrong road.
Good discussion. Too bad we didn’t get the message back in the oil crisis of the late seventies. We would be largly energy independant by now. Of course, OPEC at the time just flooded the market to reduce the cost per barrel and investors at the time bailed on alternative energy. This is more then a movement of or some new technologies that seem neat but never make it to market in eras past. I explained the part about ‘when’. Many electric and hydrogen vehicles will be on the road in 2012. But you are correct, 250 million gas guzzling vehicles will take some time to replace. With the electric car the Volt, no fueling station is needed. You plug it into an outlet overnight. With the Hydrogen vehicles, inventors have already built a home fueling box. I don’t think you’ll see too many ‘gas’ stations around 20-30 years from now.