Uhh... Yup!
Posted on 11/24/2007 8:24:33 AM PST by jdm
Mayor Giuliani left the gate early, sprinting towards the finish line off in a distance. Thompson waited, plotted and planned, leaving the gate last, well behind all others in the race, seeming completely unconcerned with the dashing hare, as he methodically set one foot firmly ahead of the other.
Is it the tortoise and the hare all over again?
Both candidates are a bit long-in-the-tooth. Both have fought and conquered cancer. Both have been qualified leaders within their party. Both have strong base support and both have the capacity to be a good executive.
But each has a different strategy for winning the hearts and minds of the people, within their party and beyond, and only time will tell which strategy is best. They are clearly different people with different personalities and their own styles. This is a bad thing?
The first difference
While every candidate in every election claims to be “the people’s candidate,” the fact is, only one candidate in the entire 2008 field of candidates was drafted by “the people.”Other differences
Some seek to downplay the importance of this reality. In fact, all other candidates hope to draw attention away from this very real fact, nobody more than the alleged “front-runners.”
It’s no secret that Thompson was not planning on running for President in ’08 or ever for that matter. Our nations first President had a similar story. Thompson was perfectly content to live his very comfortable life as an actor, new father and advisor to other national leaders. Only “the people” could have changed his life direction and they did.
All other candidates seek the office of President for their own reasons, on their own personal motives and with their own agendas in mind. Thompson seeks the office at the request of “the people” on the basis of their agenda. As a result, he will run this race very differently.
Career politicians have come to believe that “the people” can be, must be bought. They believe that they, the government and its leadership, are the answer to every question, the solution to every problem. They believe that buying votes is the shortcut to personal political power and that the people have not noticed the consequences of that practice.The Hare
Thompson believes that government is the problem and that the people are the only solution. Sound familiar?
Therefore, the standard circus style “used car salesmen” pandering we are accustomed to from career politicos is notably missing from Thompson’s campaign. This alone causes many to wonder just how serious Thompson is about his run for the White House. But how serious are Americans taking the circus stunt pandering from the others?
The hare left the starting line early and jumped into an early lead. Almost a year away from the finish line, the hare still leads. But he’s showing signs of vulnerability.The Tortoise
As of third quarter reporting, Giuliani has spent more than $30.6 million to gain his first place position in the polls. He has raised over $47 million since the beginning of his campaign, but only $11.6 million of it in the third quarter. He has spent almost ¾ of his war chest already.
Only Mitt Romney has spent more, a reported $53.6 million, $17.4 million from his personal pocket. Sprinting can be very expensive in modern politics. The Romney campaign is already bankrupt with only $9.2 million on-hand and $17.3 million in debts. How “conservative” is that?
The third quarter was Thompson’s first fund raising period. He didn’t officially announce his candidacy until half way through that quarter. Yet his campaign still reported raising $12.8 million, second only to Romney who dipped into his own pocket to remain out front in funds raised, and $1.2 million more than Giuliani during the same reporting period.The Republican “top tier”
While the hare spent 2 million more than he raised in the third quarter, the tortoise spent less than half of what he raised during the period. Maybe there should be a squirrel in this story too.
The hare is running first in most polls while the tortoise is running second. The hare has spent more than $30.6 million to get there, while the tortoise has spent less than $6 million to run second. Which is the “conservative” approach?
While the polls are still very fluid concerning a likely RNC nominee, all national polling data indicates that there are indeed only four “top tier” candidates in the RNC race.Iowa and New Hampshire
Giuliani remains the leader in almost all national polls. In most national polls, Thompson is running second, though in some cases, sharing second with the other two top tier candidates, Romney and McCain.
Mike Huckabee has made some recent headway in some local polls. But it does not seem to be translating to national support.
Republicans started using “straw polls” to gauge voter intent in 1980. Like Romney in 2007, George H.W. Bush campaigned heavy in Iowa in 1980 and defeated Ronald Reagan in Iowa as a result. Of course, he later went on to lose the party nomination and the Presidency to Reagan.The Sport of Politics
Likewise in 2004, straw polls showed Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean tied for the lead with both Kerry and Edwards running far behind. But when the ballots were counted, John Kerry finished first, Edwards second, and Dean and Gephardt were so far back in the field that both dropped out of the race soon after.
In 2000, McCain defeated George W. Bush in New Hampshire. Gore defeated Bush by a half million votes in the general election. Of course, Bush went on to become President. Nothing is as predictable as some pretend.
Though there is no more serious business than the running of our country, we tend to treat the process like a sport instead. This is certainly true among partisan campaign operatives and pundits.
While many claim to have a crystal ball providing glimpses into the future outcome of an always fluid democratic process, nobody really does.
Those who think it’s good to be the hare should experience first hand what it’s like to be a political “front-runner,” the bull’s-eye in everyone’s crosshairs. Just ask Howard Dean, Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani.
Can the Tortoise Conquer the Hare Again?
Only time will tell how the race ends. But the tortoise doesn’t look nervous yet and I can’t say the same for the hare.
Uhh... Yup!
Great article.
My only quibble: I’d refer to it as “the running of the government—or even of the ‘executive branch of the government’—of our country”, not the “running of our country”.
The dynamics of this election are so different than any other that I can remember. The compression of the Primary calendar MUST be taken into effect, and the trends cannot be ignored.
Fred had September, October and the beginning of November to capitalize, yet he failed to do so. In fact, since his official announcement, not one poll, national or State, shows an increase. (I am pinging Spiff, because his charts show this fact without doubt). Now that those very important three months have past, and Fred failed to increase, we are entering the Holiday season. People will not be paying attention like they were. They have other priorities.
In just 1 1/2 months, we have the first primaries. The first two, Iowa and New Hampshire show Romney in the lead, Michigan with Rudy in 1st, Romney second, and Fred in a distant third. South Carolina is next (Fred's first "strong" State) yet even on the best current poll Fred is only tied for first, and in the averages on RealclearPolitics his is in third behind Romney and Rudy again.
I just do not see, barring a new campaign surge that better start soon, that it can be anybody except Rudy vs Romney.
The problem with the Tortoise vs the Hare, is that in the story, the Tortoise maintained a STEADY pace, he didn't fall behind, and then try to sprint to the end.
Terrific piece by J.B. Williams. I think Rudy was pushed to run by the party because they thought he was the only one with name recognition high enough to possibly beat Hillary Clinton. In a race between Hillary and Fred, I can’t see Hillary coming out ahead. Fred’s ideas are actually his own and not party-generated like Hillary’s.
Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
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“Is the author the limp a$$ Juan “Mr. Negative” Williams og NPR and talking head fame???”
No.
Slow and steady wins the race. Go Fred!
39 Days and counting until the process begin in earnest....
Trust Starr.
That was the point I was trying (obviously badly HA HA) to make. Because of the compression of the Primaries, and the fact that we are now entering the Holiday Season, I am thinking that Fred failed to capitalize when he should have. Sept - Nov should have been those months. But I wonder how much people will be paying attention now.
I could be wrong, but the first caucus is January 3rd. That is only 2 days after the "end" of the Holiday Season. Can he capitalize now? Only time will tell, but I think it may be too late.
If the polls stay as they are (which is the main question) Mitt will have the momentum, with Rudy following. Fred may not even be the story. Unless he actually wins Iowa, the story will be Mitt (or maybe Huckabee).
He’s got a little more than a month to close the gap.
NO liberals, NO rinos, NO wafflers, NO career politicians, NO career bureaucrats.
Go Fred go!
This article is spot on TODAY. JB’s piece is the best description of Fred’s campaign. As for the tortoise being steady and Fred falling behind. You are obviously not listening and not observing. It is clear that Fred’s failure is wishful thinking by the media and left types. Mitt and Rudy are like car salesmen. All they do is sell themselves. Fred presents ideas — his ideas — for the welfare of our beloved country. He doesn’t pander. If he doesn’t know, he’ll say so and find the answer for the next time the question is asked. He is a true person and true leader — the one America and the world needs.
Wake up America! Fred Dalton Thompson is the only one who has the welfare of America in mind.
One of the favorite comparisons of this election is that Kerry was so far behind Dean at this point in 2004, yet he "came out of no where" to beat him in Iowa. Did Kerry become the favorite because of something he did, or because Dean just melted down?
Can Fred do this, and who would he benefit from the most?
Because we have one person in first place (nationally) ,and four others virtually tied for second, why would Fred be the Tortoise in this scenario vs any of the others.
I am now going to say something that will rightfully get me flamed, but here it goes....
I think many here made a huge mistake in thinking that Fred could be the "compromise" candidate. I really think that the "compromise candidate" should have been John McCain. With every single one of the front runners there is something that their backers must be able to overlook. Yet we see in poll after poll that when it comes to the general election, John McCain has the best chance to beat the Beast. If we are willing to overlook flaws in some candidates, why can't we do the same for a true patriot? I am not saying that even I am going to vote for McCain in the primary, but if he could have brought together all of the conservatives, I would gladly endorse him. I personally just don't see a huge difference between him and Fred, yet I just like John McCain better, and according to the head to head polls, so does the rest of America.
I dont’ think Fred will be a factor in Iowa or NH. Romney has staked his campaign on winning the early states and carrying that over into Super Tuesday. Giuliani is centering on FL and winning the large states on Super Tuesday which is Feb 5, two days after the Super Bowl. Giuliani’s plan is to shut down Romney at that point and go on to the win. How Fred can actually become viable becomes the real question. In any case one of the top three [Giuliani, Romney, Thompson] basically has to fade as the voting progresses.
If Romney is shut down or stymied somewhat by Huckabee then that can bring Thompson into the mix.... This is a strange cycle this time around. Yes the Holidays are just before the voting begins but that is only for Iowa, Wyoming and NH , Jan. 3, 5, and 8. After that we have MI on the 15, SC/Nevada on the 19th and FL on the 29th and then Super Tuesday the 5th of Feb.
I honestly think Fred is the ONLY GOP candidate that can successfully do this and that his chances against Hillary are the best. I would not let these early one on one polls mean to much. The fact that McCain recently polled well does not mean that he is the one who is best pitted against her.
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