Posted on 11/23/2007 10:55:46 PM PST by naturalman1975
Bolt has been calling it for Labor for weeks. He’s pretty much given up. He could be right. But that’s the context.
Ignore early exit polls, according to 2004 early exit polls John Kerry is US president today.
Winston Churchill was bounced by English people right after he saved England and helped win WW2, for not much more of a reason that they wanted to put bad memories behind them, start anew and be entertained. Let’s hope and pray that John Winston Howard and his Liberal Party keeps governing majority.
If election is close it may come down to the less populated western part of Australia. How is it usually leaning and any indication on the mood there now? Thanks.
Good to know. I don’t read much of Bolt so had no context.
There are three main opinion polls. Two day its too close to call, one gives it to Labor.
First figures are showing fairly large swings to Labor in a number of seats including Braddon.
As at 6:29:14 PM.
Liberal/National Coalition
Votes: 4,269
Percent: 61.57%
Swing: -2.90%
Australian Labor Party
Votes: 2,665
Percent: 38.43%
Swing: +2.90%
First figures suggest Liberals retain McMillan.
Braddon, Labor ahead but still in doubt.
Robertson, Lib ahead, but still in doubt.
Dobell, Labor ahead.
Bennelong (the Prime Ministers own seat and a marginal) first results suggest no swing.
Looks like the liberal/national coalition is leading by your numbers, just shy of a 2-1 margin, 62%-38%? Is this a good sign? What does the swing % mean?
It’s better than being behind, but these early results are predominantly coming from places that are fairly safe for the Liberals and Nationals.
The swing - basically, it’s how much the vote has changed since the last election. Labor is looking for a swing of over 4 or 5% in their favour to win, currently it is getting less than that, but it’s really too early to say much.
Someone explained their preference voting to me earlier today and I think I can answer your swing question.
The swing percent is how far a drop bear would fly if launched from a trebuchet with a counter weight equaling the difference in weight of the primary ballot stacks counted so far.
Their process is kind of confusing to me, so I could well have that part wrong.
It's too early yet to draw any conclusions. The % swing is the change for/against since the last election.
What is the latest update?
Bennelong (PMs seat) - 10% swing to Labor, which would remove the PM, but on early figures. Not being called yet.
Flinders - (Liberal currently) - swing to Labor, but Liberals should retain.
Gilmore (Liberal currently) - in doubt.
Corangamite (Liberal currently - marginal). In doubt.
Bass (Liberal currently - very marginal). In doubt.
What is the latest update?
Exit Poll: Howard Loses Oz Election
Updated:07:07, Saturday November 24, 2007
Australian Prime Minister John Howard has lost his bid for a fifth successive term in power, a Sky News Australia exit poll predicts.
PM confident as he votesThe Conservative leader has been in power for 11 years, but was trailing in opinion polls behind opposition Labour leader Kevin Rudd.
The result will be revealed in the next few hours.
The Sky exit poll of 31 marginal government seats forecast a 30-seat gain for Rudd, more than enough for him to form a Government.
The exit poll of 2,787 voters by Auspoll gave Labour 53% of the vote and the ruling Liberal party 47%.
“Its very likely that Labor has won this election. Something in the order of 30-odd seats,” said Auspoll’s John Armitage.
Liberal/National Coalition 38,378 57.81 -1.68
Australian Labor Party 28,011 42.19 +1.68
As at 6:48:14 PM.
Liberal/National Coalition
Votes: 32,835
Percent: 58.74%
Swing: -1.99%
Australian Labor Party
Votes: 23,068
Percent: 41.26%
Swing: +1.99%
At 6.54pm.
Coalition 3.
Labor 0.
Unknown. 147.
At 6.57.
Coalition 3
Labor 2
Uncalled 145
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