The Two-Man Republican Race

Commentary Magazine ^ | 11/21/2007 | John Podhoretz

[JCEccles]

Romney has brought intense hard work, relentless and effective fund-raising, and a tight coherent plan to the table. He has emerged as the only candidate who has a reasonable shot at derailing the Giuliani Express.

Undermine Mitt, and you only boost Rudy's fortunes. Rudy is laughing at you all you knuckleheads. You swear you don't want him, but you seem hell bent on clearing his path to victory.

[JCEccles]

Bump

[Romneyfor President2008]

Fred needs to work harder in Iowa to get Huck off our backs. LOL

[HuntsvilleTxVeteran]

I do not want either and I will never vote for Rudy or Romney.
Either will harm America and the Republican Party.
Now the left wing is whining “If you don’t for this left winger, you will get a left winger”.

[big'ol_freeper]

If Republicans only choices are Willard and Rudy then the Republican Party is dead or more precisely conservatism is dead. Stated differently, if the only two choices Republicans have are two liberals then the party has gone off a cliff and is not worthy of my vote. We can do better than the Liberal Troika of Romney, Guiliani, and McCain. Vote for any conservative of your choice but NEVER vote for one of these sick liberal SOBs.

[plain talk]

Not sure I agree with you but this article supports what I have been saying all along. An equally splintered opposition to Giuliani works to Giuliani’s advantage. We have an unusual situation where there are four contenders to Giuliani who are polling close to one another. Unless that changes this nomination is Giuliani’s to lose.

[captnorb]

Undermine Mitt and we will get a conservative candidate!

[DoughtyOne]

Rudy and Romney have as much chance of me voting for them as Hilary does. It isn’t going to happen.

All you folks who want Romney, you can have him.

I WILL NOT vote for Romney. I WILL NOT vote for Giuliani. And sadly I have added Mike Huckabee to that list. His record is nowhere near as conservative as I had thought, and I’m not voting for another RINO as long as I live.

I’m taking a hard look at Thompson right now. I am convinced that Hunter is as sound a man as there is. He is head and shoulders better than any other candidate, bar none.

[clintonh8r]

FRed FLopped. (and new tag line!) Happy flaming, and Happy Thanksgiving!!

[deport]

Podhoretz does a good job of laying out the strategies of both camps. The real question to me is which of these two campaigns will faulter and can Thompson have any impact at that point?.... With Super Tuesday having some big states like NY/CA etc you have to believe that Giuliani has the edge that day.

There are only 42 days until Iowa kicks off this process in earnest. That pretty much says that any of the bottom tier is now inconsequential as they aren’t doing squat in Iowa. Wyoming on Jan. 5, NH on Jan. 8, Michigan, SC and FL then Super Tuesday... Gonna be a quick and interesting showdown.

Question for anyone to speculate on. Which candidate will be the first to drop out and when?

[clintonh8r]

I think Brownback and Thompson have already dropped out.

[bannie]

I don’t think we’ve narrowed it down this far yet.

[edcoil]

“The Two-Man Republican Race”

Put me down for Fred and Mitt in 6 months.

[deport]

I think Brownback and Thompson have already dropped out.

---

Yep that I know and maybe I should have been more specific. I’m referring to those still running and will be around come Iowa caucus time.

[clintonh8r]

Well, as much as I hate it, I’d have to say Hunter would be the next to go. He just doesn’t seem to be getting the traction he deserves.

[deport]

I don’t think we’ve narrowed it down this far yet.

---

Agreed they haven’t been narrowed, yet..... But using the senario laid out for Romney and Giuliani which other candidate will be the one to step forward to upset the senario. Romney has been going for wins in the early states and has spent tons of money. Giuliani is looking for FL and then Super Tuesday to kick start his momentum. So how do you see if differently and who is the candidate to come forward and knock those two down and how?

[org.whodat]

Undermine Mitt, and you only boost Rudy's fortunes.

ROFLOL, what's the difference between the two liberals, one looks better in a dress.

[Clara Lou]

I don't understand why you're posting here, JC. You just got through calling EVERYONE here at FR "knuckleheads"-- TWICE on this thread. Why do you bother to preach to knuckleheads, as you call us?

[lgwdnbdgr]

Giuliani’s position is greatly overstated. RealClearPolitics.com shows Rudy polling between 27% and 36% in Florida this November. Rudy’s problem is that the race isn’t going to be held today.

I’m using the most recent Mason-Dixon numbers in Florida, as they are the most favorable to Rudy among those linked off RCP. They report Rudy at 36% and Romney, McCain, Fred and Huckabee all close together, ranging from 8%-15%. Another 15% are undecided.

The problem with Rudy’s Florida gambit is that Romney, McCain, Thompson and Huckabee are not all going to still be in the race by the time Florida votes. One, *maybe* two of those four will still be credible candidates by then. These are “likely voters,” meaning that 15% undecided are “likely” to decide by then. I can’t imagine a scenario in which Rudy will fare well amongst any of these populations.

The eventual nominee will almost certainly win at least one of Iowa, NH or SC.