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What a load of hooey.
NO ONE. I repeat NO ONE "knows" what the price of ANYTHING will be tomorrow much less a year or ten years from now. Anyone who does can become extremely wealthy investing in options, commodities or the stock market.
Businesses make unwise investments. Banks make unwise loans. Lenders take out unwise loans. It happens. It's all part of a dynamic, risk-rewarding economy.
The high-tech bubble burst horribly. The NASDAQ dropped what? Seventy percent from its high? There was pain, but life and our economy went on. The same will happen here.
It never fails to amaze me how the gloom-and-doomers can be proven so wrong so many times and yet they never change their tune. And some people still listen to them!
In the 80's the Japanese were going to make us an economic colony. Then the Savings and Loan crises was going to send us into a depression. Then it was the loss of manufacturing jobs. Then the trade deficit. Now the Chicken Littles are screaming about the falling dollar, oil prices and the real estate bust.
And you know what? All this, too, shall pass. So long as we resist protectionism and socialism, we'll continue to be the economic engine of the world. Falling dollar? Hey, my business exports high-tech, high-dollar equipment.....we can't keep up with the orders or find enough qualified people to fill positions.
Bet against the American economy at your peril.
Hank
Boy are you whistling past the graveyard, and this is simply untrue. Most things you do know the price now, tomorrow, and next year, within a reasonable enough degree of certainty that one can plan things pretty well.
Most products have pretty well established costs because the input factors are well known. Commodoties prices vary, but for most finished products labor and capital expenses dominate. The other variable is profit which is not as predictable, but is generally a reasonably small fraction of total price.
The only thing that is uncertain to a large degree is in markets where the price is set by speculators. Real estate has been classic in this case.
One may not be able to predict price, but one can predict risk. When average prices are a significant multiple of average affordabiity one is headed into deep water. When that price is further supported only by 1.75% interest rates one has headed into the hurricane.
Most modest homes are now well above $500,000 and for most persons around a $3500 monthly payment plus taxes, homeowners insurance (a requirement) etc. just is beyond the range of an average two income family. Add upkeep, utilities, maybe you should consider hooey again.
My concern is the pending rat control of government. They intend to squash the economic vitality of this county by making it into a socialist Utopian society. The rats are itching to control a number of important industries: energy development, power generation, health care, private mortgages, student loans, and pharmaceuticals. When rat control is coupled with staggering tax increases and spending increases, I wonder whether the American spirit will be crushed. For reasons that I do not understand, the American voter seems poised to let the rats destroy the economy.