Posted on 11/16/2007 2:11:59 PM PST by naturalman1975
JOHN Howard enters the final week of his last campaign facing defeat as Kevin Rudd and Labor hold their election-winning lead in key marginal seats.
According to the latest Newspoll survey, covering both parties' election launches this week, the Coalition has failed to peg back Labor's lead in the Government's 18 most marginal seats in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
On primary votes in the 18 seats, Labor extended its lead in the past two weeks to five points -- 47 per cent to the Coalition's 42per cent -- to give the ALP a two-party preferred lead of 54 per cent to 46 per cent.
To be even competitive, the Government has to pull back at least two or three percentage points in the final week of the election campaign.
The survey of marginal seats is in keeping with all the national polling in recent months, which has shown a consistent eight-point lead for Labor.
If the swing recorded in the Newspoll survey -- the biggest of the campaign to date, after canvassing 3615 voters between Monday and Thursday -- is uniform in the marginal seats and across-the-board in the four states, the Coalition would lose between 18 and 28 seats.
Labor has to make a net gain of at least 16 seats to take government next Saturday. But Kevin Rudd refused to take anything for granted yesterday, urging all Labor candidates to "get out there" and campaign every hour up to the close of polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at theaustralian.news.com.au ...
But it's still close enough for John Howard and the Coalition to retain office.
Quite simply, a lot of people will make up their minds how to vote in the polling booth next Saturday.
Depending on the choice they make that day, anything is possible.
Labor could win a landslide, reducing the Coalition to a rump, with John Howard becoming only the second sitting Prime Minister to lose his own seat.
Labor could pick up the seats it needs in the eastern states, only to lose the election as later results come in from Western Australia.
We could even have a mirror image of the 1993 election - when all the polls said the government of the day (Keating - Labor) was doomed, and they went on to increase their majority.
What will happen? We have to wait and see.
I have always thought Aussies were independent thinkers. Maybe they will continue with John Howard in office.
If Labor wins, Australia will cease to be the loyal ally to the U.S. that it has been under Howard’s leadership. Here’s hoping that Howard and his coalition prevail.
Austraila has been a very good ally of the US, I hope the people of OZ see that it is in their interests to re-elect PM Howard’s party.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.