Dick Morris: "Giuliani Might Fall Big in Iowa"

NewsMax.com ^ | 14 Nov 07 | Dick Morris & Eileen McGann

[seanmerc]

Even as he continues to hold a convincing lead in the national race, Rudy Giuliani may be riding for a big fall in Iowa and the other early state primaries.

Mitt Romney, despite his anemic national showing, could sweep Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan, a trifecta that could give him such momentum as to sweep him to the nomination.

The numbers are scary for Giuliani (and since Mitt doesn’t have a prayer in hell of beating Hillary in a general election, scary for us all). While he holds a lead in the national polls (Giuliani 30, Thompson 17, McCain 15, Romney 12, Huckabee 9 — all data is from the average of the past five polls posted on www.realclearpolitics.com), he is trailing badly in all the early states.

In Iowa, the first caucus, it’s Romney 29, Huckabee 15, Giuliani 13, Thompson 12, McCain 8. And New Hampshire isn’t much better. There it’s Romney also in the lead with 32 percent, Rudy a distant second at 21 percent, McCain at 16 percent, Huckabee at 7 percent, and Thompson at 5 percent. And Michigan, which might be just a few days after New Hampshire, shows Romney also in the lead at 25 percent with Rudy at 20 percent.

So what will happen to Giuliani if he loses Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan? South Carolina, the most conservative state in the nation, won’t be a stopper for him (he currently is tied with Romney at 19 percent, with Thompson at 18 percent). If he loses the first three contests, he’ll get creamed there.

The question will then become, Can Florida hold for Rudy? Right now, he has a comfortable 33-16 lead over Romney, but how will his candidacy fare after four straight crushing defeats?

Rudy has brought this crisis on himself by foolishly running no television ads in any of the early primary or caucus states while Romney has advertised for six to eight months. In a classic hare-versus-tortoise scenario, Giuliani waited so long to show his colors on television that Romney may have built up an insurmountable lead in the interim.

Rudy could still bounce back in Iowa if he gets his act together there and at least make it close.

More possible would be for Huckabee, who has been surging with no money, to close with Romney and win in Iowa. Mike’s consistent pro-life position contrasts sharply with Mitt’s flip-flop-flip on the issue and could propel Huckabee ahead of Romney, particularly in light of the former Arkansas governor’s announcement that he is going to spend $1 million on Iowa ads.

But if Romney wins in Iowa, he will certainly win in New Hampshire — where he already leads — and in Michigan, where his father was governor and he has been working hard. Coming into Florida with that kind of momentum will make it very hard for Giuliani to come back. But not impossible.

National front-runners like Rudy and Hillary can survive shocks along the road, recover their balance and go on to win.

Bill Clinton lost New Hampshire in 1992, and George W. Bush lost it in 2000, but each ended up doing pretty well. A candidate who is back in the polls usually can be knocked out by an adverse result in an early caucus or primary. But a front-runner usually has to be defeated one state at a time in dozens of states to be upended.

Republicans might recover their senses in time and realize that with Hillary on the ballot for the Democrats (most likely) it is no time to experiment with America’s tolerance and see if a Mormon can be elected president. With only 36 percent of the nation’s voters saying one can prevail, it would be an uphill fight.

Is this truly the year the GOP wants to be saddled with a latter-day version of Al Smith in 1928? More to the point, Hillary would eat Romney alive and spit him out by attacking his total inexperience in foreign policy and his current pro-life position.

She won’t even need the anti-Mormon bigots to beat him.

So Republicans might pause to reconsider what they are about to do before they hand Romney the nomination. But with the extremely short lead time between Iowa and the rest of the nation’s primaries, who knows if there is enough time to stem such momentum?

[edcoil]

Poor Dick, all is pandering to Rudy and putting down other Republicans is coming back to roost.

[AU72]

That clinches it. I know who my money is on as soon as I can find out who’s taking book on Iowa.

[expatpat]

Mitt doesn’t have a prayer in hell of beating Hillary in a general election

Since Morris is invariably wrong on political predictions, this must be good news to the Romney campaign. Actually, I think Romney has the smarts and the smoothness to have the best chance of beating the H.

[ConservativeMan55]

bttt

[freespirited]

Right now, Romney is polling the worst by far against Hillary in the head-to-heads. McCain, Fred and Rudy do much better and in some polls are ahead of her.

[SUSSA]

The toe sucker is shilling for Rudy. They both have less character than a crack whore.

[conservativehusker]

Personnaly I have faith in the American people that Hitlery WILL NOT be POTUS...(but then again I had faith that Billy wouldn’t be re-elected either...)

However Bill never got a majority..unless a STRONG third party canidate I predict a GOP victory...(I hope) ..(Maybe)..(perhaps)..anyway thats my prayer!

[Mariner]

I do not foresee Romney winning the nomination under any scenario.

At best, he'll finish 3rd behind Rudy and Fred.

The early states will mean very little come Feb 5th.

[Cicero]

The toe sucker is shilling for Rudy. They both have less character than a crack whore.

Yes. "Right to life? Babies? What babies? All that matters is me, getting power and keeping power."

Actually, I think Giuliani, in spite of his violations of every rule of the Catholic Church he was brought up in, may still have a glimmer of conscience. He's faithful to his friends in his fashion. Morris, from all appearances, has none.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

From the Toe-sucker’s lips to God’s ears. ;)

[SUSSA]

Yeah but look at his friends, they aspire to be scum.

[nikos1121]

I think the more people learn about Mitt the more they will like him. Secondly, I think the people are less inclined to vote for a woman.

[Biblebelter]

Fox News and in this case a commentator for Fox News are becoming more irrelevant by the moment. Iowa is a big deal for Democrats and always has been. Iowa will neither make, break, or seal the deal for any Republican candidate.

[jalisco555]

Right now, Romney is polling the worst by far against Hillary in the head-to-heads. McCain, Fred and Rudy do much better and in some polls are ahead of her.

I think that's due to name recognition more than anything else. If he can take Michigan from the dems and hold W's states he can win. Which current red state beside Ohio do you think The Beast can win?

[Past Your Eyes]

Yeah, and a huge earthquake MIGHT level San Fagcisco this afternoon. Why does anybody give a flip what this toe-sucking low-life thinks or says?

[expatpat]

He’s smart, polished, and well-funded. Rudy has too many negatives, and I don’t think Fred wants it enough.

[edcoil]

“and I don’t think Fred wants it enough.”

Why, because he does not do it like everyone else?

For things to change, you have to change. I personally have hated every election since 2000 and what it has become, I appreciate the new difference.

Walking softly and carrying a big stick is the Tenn. way.

[Liz]

MORRIS: "Rudy has brought (his pending primary flop) on himself by foolishly running no TV ads in any of the early primary or caucus states..... In a classic hare-versus-tortoise scenario, Giuliani waited so long to show his colors on TV that Romney may have built up an insurmountable lead........."

Morris "omitted" a huge factoid here: .......... or more likely The Rudester told The Dickster to "keep it quiet."

RINO Rooty was arrogantly and purposefully avoiding early primary states (conservative strongholds)-----that's the reason no Rooty ads were run.

Rooty's campaign is engaged in a VERY dirty game played by remorseless people: the religious cleansing of the Repub party. The "Everything For Us Nothing For You" RINO types are squatting in the Repub party, plotting to kick so/con Repubs to the curb to obliterate all signs of the party's all-important social conservate base.

Now nitwit Rooty belatedly discovered he REALLY needs conservatives.

" P-l-e-a-s-e make me sound conservative."

"My stupid advisors told me I didn't need those redneck gun nuts and
those dumb pro-life Christian conservatives to make a primary showing."

" They're killing me on FR just b/c I dumped my wife for my mistress, don't talk
to my kids, was honored by NARAL, donated to Planned Parenthood, marched
for gay rights under the NAMBLA banner, appointed gays and pedophiles
to top city jobs, and provided a sanctuary for illegals."

[Cicero]

People watch the Sopranos because there’s still a sense of honor there, although it’s perverted honor.

Dick Morris wouldn’t even know what honor was.

Having said that, you still wouldn’t want a Mafioso as president. With his friends in all the power slots.

And that’s just speaking of character. I have even worse problems with Giuliani on the issues: abortion, gun control, gay rights . . . .