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To: John Valentine

Because I believe the smart money would back Hunter and it is wishful thinking to hope that Fred’s polls will change. He had his chance and he squandered it, he should step aside and let the rock-ribbed conservative have access to the kind of resources he so cavalierly misused in his poor campaigning.


78 posted on 11/15/2007 9:12:38 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Your obsessive fantasy that “smart money’ is backing Hunter or “would” back Hunter is a joke, my friend.

You undoubtedly think that Hunter is the best man running, as is your privilege. I respect that, but you don’t get points for failing to understand reality, especially the reality of markets. I made my living for many years trading futures so if you want to learn, you can learn from me.

We’ll see whether or not Fred Thompson has squandered his changes. Time will tell.

I only want to add one thing about “liquidity” as you have mentioned the lack thereof in the trade of Hunter contracts on Intrade. Liquidity isn’t something that can be added to a market, it is a description of a market condition wherein buyers and sellers are able to reach deals and make trades.

There are two ways that “liquidity” can come back into the Hunter contract trading:

1 - Hunter comes to life in a significant way and moves into the tier of candidates that now includes Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mike Huckabee. But, if anyone thought that had any chance of happening, the trade would already be there. These markets are quite efficient.

2- The Intrade market institues a policy where a contract trading at less than, say 10 or 20 cents, would be allowed a smaller tick than 10 cents. Maybe 1 cent or 1/2 cent. That would let the present holders of Hunter contracts find buyers and a trade would exist on the way from 10 cents per contract down to something lower. How much lower only the market could determine.

I could rip into you “pig belly” analogy, but that would take some time, as you have completely misunderstood how the market for something like agricultural and other commodities works. I’ll confine myself to letting you know that the correct term is “pork bellies”.


89 posted on 11/15/2007 9:51:16 PM PST by John Valentine
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To: Kevmo

Give it a rest. I love duncan, but he’s 2% in the polls and he started running nearly a year before Fred. He’s got a fire in his belly and what good has it done?
You are giving the rest of us duncan hunter fans a bad name.
The best man that is above the margin of error is FRED. Support him while there is still time.
Robbin


106 posted on 11/16/2007 10:19:01 AM PST by Robbin
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