OK, Kevmo,
At your insistence and with a great deal of incredulity I followed your link to the Intrade forum, and guess what?
There is NOT ONE POST there that supports your stand-it-on-its heqad theory that there are no buyers for Hunters contract at 10 cents because it is overvalued. All there is is the same kind of navel gazing introspection and theorizing about how such aa great candidate as Duncal Hunter is and has been going exactly nowhere.
But, again, there is NOTHING, not one post in support of your BS.
So, you are now self-exposed as not only a fool, but a liar as well.
And Kevmo, please do not decieve yourself. You have NOT won any points with the crap you have been posting and, frankly if you are the calibre of suppporter that Duncan Hunter is attracting, it reflects rather badly on him.
John, you just don’t understand.
Fred Thompson sucks and he is preventing Duncan Hunter from breaking out as a candidate. Indeed Thompson being in the race distorts Duncan’s true numbers.
No facts can change that regardless if they are true.
Give up and back Hunter...
Think of how proud YOU will be to be one of those who gets him from 3 - 4 percent to 4 - 5 percent...
OK, Kevmo,
At your insistence and with a great deal of incredulity I followed your link to the Intrade forum, and guess what?
There is NOT ONE POST there that supports your stand-it-on-its heqad theory that there are no buyers for Hunters contract at 10 cents because it is overvalued.
***Here’s the first post on the forum. You are completely full of bovine feces.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
Delphi
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Joined: 11/09/2007 06:28:38
Messages: 106
Online
I’ve said all along that on paper at least, this guy has to be the conservative’s conservative. Now, if Mlipsky sees this he will remind everyone that as a liberal I have no “creds” on this issue so I’ll save him the trouble and agree that I could be missing something. But look at his wiki entry and it’s hard to argue with this notion. Plus he has a son in Iraq and was instrumental in getting a partial wall built along the Mexican border at a time when this is one of, if not the, most passionate issue among rank and file GOP voters. The obvious knocks against him as a potential nominee have been name recognition and fundraising - and both are still hurdles.
I wonder though if he isn’t picking up some steam as the immigration issue has advanced from a simmer to a low boil. As background, over the last few months he has done extremely well in several state straw polls. First he won in Arizona [1], beating a local fellow named John McCain. Then in SC [2] he finished a close third with Giuliani and McCain (164-162-158 ). Most recently he won in Texas [3] in a poll where the frontrunners didn’t attend but you could still vote for them (and some did). Now these are not the most scientific things, but as a measure what the movers and shakers in the party who bother to show up think, they could be a bellweather for how regular voters view him once they get familiar with him (assuming he reaches the critical mass to get to them). Note also that even though these look like small samples, at roughly 1,000 voters they rival in statistical power (if not in careful demographic representation) the Fox/CBS/WaPo/Gallup/USAT polls we all routinely react to in trading here.
Despite these straw polls however, he was still polling as an asterisk nationally until recently. I had honestly written him off for awhile. But now there may be some indication that the regular folks are starting to like what they see. They are famously underwhelmed with the current candidates, and Hunter does have a solid anti-abortion voting record — so he could even end up the “compromise” candidate that the hawks, evangelicals and business folks can all live with. I watch these polls and from time to time see him blip up to 1 or 2 in a single one, but never across the board. But now, in the 3 most recent polls listed at pollingreport.com [4], he’s trending upward (see below). He’s no Mike Huckabee yet, and this could be noise still, but he might be someone to watch — especially with the facetime he has gotten this week due to the southern CA fires. Stay tuned.
Fox: 3% (up from 1)
LA Times: 2 (up from 1)
CNN: 3 (up from 1)
[1] http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/01/16/news/top_stories/1_03_321_15_07.txt
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0121mccain0120.html
[2]
http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/blogs/politicalticker/2007/03/mccain-wins-spartanburg-straw-poll.html
[3] http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/090207dntexstrawpoll.90d12f3f.html
[4] http://pollingreport.com/wh08rep.htm
John, you are the liar.
Here are the 4th, 5th & 6th posts from that forum.
How many more do I need to post before you are exposed for the liar that you are? Or do you think I’m inventing this stuff?
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Joined: 14/10/2007 03:02:32
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Illegal immigration works better as a “stick it to the Democrats” issue for Republicans. It only really appeals to a small, but vocal, segment of the working class (both left and right). A wall and deport candidate will be perceived as unelectable, and will be unappealing to those with money to donate.
Additionally, hispanics tend to be conservative on many key issues. Going too far to the right on immigration alienates hispanic voters. The Republican party is making an effort to appeal to hispanic voters. Being hard on abortion but moderate on immigration garners more votes. Turning out the core conservatives won’t work anymore. It took eight years, but they finally figured it out.
Maybe when someone starts to fall, they’ll make a stink over immigration? Until then, serious candidates have the general election to think about. . .
26/10/2007 06:48:27 Subject: Re:Duncan Hunter gaining traction?
andywend
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Joined: 04/09/2007 22:44:54
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Delphi:
You’re absolutely right here. Duncan Hunter is a conservative’s conservative and would make a fantastic president.
I got an email a while back which asked 11 different questions to determine which candidate is most in line with one’s views.
Duncan Hunter came out on top easily with Fred Thompson a clear 2nd. The bottom 2 were Dennis Kuninch and Christopher Dodd. I would imagine if you answered the 11 questions, the results would be the exact opposite.
Delphi, just to make one thing clear. Just because we have completely opposite political views, doesn’t mean I think you are a bad person. It only means that I disagree with you politically.
I realize that the republicans have gotten quite SOFT on illegal immigration but that doesn’t mean the problem doesn’t exist. Whether we like it or not, hispanics are making up a larger and larger percentage of voters and it won’t be too long when they will be the group deciding our elections.
The republicans are wasting their time going after the black vote and as long as blacks hand over their votes to the democrats, they will never get adequate representation from the federal government. If they showed the slightest bit of willingness to vote republican as a group, I think the party would bend over backwards to fight for them.
The hispanics control the future of the republican party (and the democratic party for that matter) and the republicans have decided to vigorously fight for their votes.
The federal government (under both parties) has proven to be ineffective in properly managing social security, education, etc. If the democrats get their wish and the government completely takes over medicine, it will be an absolute disaster.
The quality of medical care under the current system is the best in the world and socializing the system will wind up destroying it. Instead, the democrats should concentrate on trying to get all these uninsured people access to this great medical care system currently in place in the U.S.
I appreciate the invite to the conversation and hope all is well.
26/10/2007 08:27:44 Subject: Re:Duncan Hunter gaining traction?
Delphi
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Joined: 11/09/2007 06:28:38
Messages: 106
Online
Andywend, thanks for your thoughts. I don’t actually take biting disagreement here too personally (hence the invitation to Mlipsky, unofficial attack dog of the right here, to dive into this one). One nice thing about this forum is that no matter our often wildly divergent political views, we all share a riveted fascination with futures markets. Since accurate conract appraisal requires dispassionate objectivity and inclusion of all available information and perspectives, there’s that incentive to have civil, all-engaging discussion.
So in that spirit (!) I’ll decline to bite too much into your comments here on health care delivery - except to say that I expect we will always have a thriving private health care industry that exists on top of a basic safety-net level universal coverage (however that ends up implemented, as I’m certain it will be).
It’s my take too (Dessalines and Andywend) that immigration presents both parties with a difficultly-navigated minefield. Your posts though make me wonder if I’m not sufficiently appreciating the interest the GOP has in avoiding alienating Hispanic citizens on this issue. I’m well aware they trend Democrat at the ballot box (except for Cuban-Americans), but are on the whole socially conservative, but maybe had a blind spot to the tightrope act the GOP was playing with them on getting tough on their cultural cousins who are flouting the law to get here. More specifically, I guess I have assumed that dealing with the ire on this issue coming from the “anglo” working class GOP rank and file dwarfed that concern (of alienating potentially swing-voting hispanics). I take it you think this segment which is up in arms about this is small enough not to be a significant driving factor in policy, or even enduring rhetoric? I confess I’m not familiar enough with the hard numbers (of who cares fervently about this issue, by voting preference). It would be useful to see this kind of info. But at least from anecdotal observance, they seem like a hugely vocal contingent on the internet - and from my personal experience, in public.
I agree with the nexus Dessalines points to between the big donors and the tack the party is going to take on this issue. Still I don’t see why a Tancredo or a Hunter can’t make better hay out of this by talking it up non-stop. Remember that these long-shot candidates (like Dodd and Richardson from the other side) have everything to gain by going for broke and tacking further away from the middle in order to stay in the game longer. I guess they are trying but the money issue means that no one will hear it.
Still, if the constituency is large and motivated enough (which I thought it was), why aren’t they actively seeking out these second-tier candidates and at least finding them on the internet, if not on their TVs? Nearly everyone has some web access, even if it’s the local library. I guess that’s the thing I don’t get. The Tancredo/Hunter/Paul trio is pretty “pure” on this issue, but their polling total is in single digits. I could swear that even the portion of the GOP primary voters for whom this is a viable “single issue” would be twice that much, easily. Clearly I’m still missing something.