You are exactly right.
A contributing factor in the 1919 epidemic is that most of the medical personnel came down with the disease themselves. While sterile methods might reduce this in a modern epidemic, it would probably not be enough to help without a functional vaccine.
In the long run, it’s not a good idea to bet against viruses and bacteria. They’ve been around a lot longer than people and in a race between their evolutionary strategies and our technology, in the long term put your money on the germs.
Interestingly, even the 1919 epidemic didn’t come close to some of the great epidemics of the past for percentage of the population killed. We really don’t have a clue about how drastically this can affect society.
I made it halfway through the book last year. I need to get back to it and finish it!