I think you said yesterday that you were maintaining a spread sheet of the daily poll numbers. Since yesterday was 13% but today back down to 11% (with I believe 2 days since the endorsement counted) what would his numbers need to be over the next few days to jump him back to the 18%?
Also, since all of these flucuations are within the margin of error (11%-13%) do you factor that in also?
Thanks, math and statistics have never been my strong suit.
No, I'm not maintaining a spread sheet, although you can find Rasmussen's own chart of the daily numbers
here. Fred's percentage yesterday was 12%, he's back to 11% today, and there are still two days in there of pre-endorsement numbers.
Because the daily tracking poll covers four days's results, in order to be at 18% by Monday, Fred either would have to poll 18% each day for the next four days, or to average 18% over the next four days (i.e., Thursday through Sunday).
I'm counting heavily on the margin of error : )