Hunter won’t get to $0.20. You have to realise that the 4% you are speaking of is $4. He’s basicaaly trading (actually he’s NOT trading) at the lowest possible tick, 10 cents per contract and no takers at that price, suggesting that the actual value of a Hunter contract is something less than that. as I put it, it approaches absolute zero.
You seem to have the idea that if Hunter could get to 4% or 5% in the polls, somehow the value of his contract in Intrade would rise to reflect that.
It wouldn’t.
Why? That’s just NOT how markets work. Because you can’t with 4%, and that would be the upper bound of possibility for him, the market will continue to assess Hunter’s chances of bweing the Republican nominee as essentially zero. Hunter is trading right there with Tom Tancredo. if Barney Frank were a Republican presidential candidate, he’d be right there with Duncan.
Look, if you were to buy one of more of the outstanding Hunter contracts you’d make the holders very happy because I can assure you that they know they are holding a worthless asset, due to expire at a zero value ssome months from now. It would warm their hearts to know that somewhere out there you can still find someone willing to pay something for nothing.
Hunter won’t get to $0.20. You have to realise that the 4% you are speaking of is $4. He’s basicaaly trading (actually he’s NOT trading) at the lowest possible tick, 10 cents per contract and no takers at that price, suggesting that the actual value of a Hunter contract is something less than that. as I put it, it approaches absolute zero.
***I realize that.
You seem to have the idea that if Hunter could get to 4% or 5% in the polls, somehow the value of his contract in Intrade would rise to reflect that. It wouldn’t.
***Yes I do have that idea. I also have other ideas that are discussed on that thread over at Intrade but are not allowed here on FR, and it leads me to believe that the Fred.Dropout contract is a bargain as well. If Fred drops out, his support should go to Hunter. But that may be incorrect reasoning because he’s got some support from name recognition types who would jump over to the best name recognition candidate. So I think about half of his support would fall to Hunter, and Hunter could gather the conservative wing and start kicking hindquarters and taking names in the Kennedy Wing of the Republican Party.
Why? That’s just NOT how markets work. Because you can’t with 4%, and that would be the upper bound of possibility for him, the market will continue to assess Hunter’s chances of bweing the Republican nominee as essentially zero.
***How do you know that? Huckabee moved on up into the 2nd tier with similar polling numbers.
Hunter is trading right there with Tom Tancredo. if Barney Frank were a Republican presidential candidate, he’d be right there with Duncan.
***Yes, but Hunter is truly a bargain. If you think that the odds of him getting to $4 are less than 40 to 1, show us how.
Look, if you were to buy one of more of the outstanding Hunter contracts you’d make the holders very happy because I can assure you that they know they are holding a worthless asset, due to expire at a zero value ssome months from now. It would warm their hearts to know that somewhere out there you can still find someone willing to pay something for nothing.
***Then let’s warm their hearts. There are only ~2208 contracts currently offered for sale, all at 0.5 or below, and the price would jump instantly to 0.5.
0.1 639
0.2 742
0.3 375
0.4 300
0.5 152
Then you’d see other folks hoping to dump their contracts, the median price would go up and he won’t be the bargain he is at 0.1 for long. I posted another thread where I thought I saw Hunter going to 5% on Intrade because someone had posted BID prices at 2% and 3% with no ASK prices, no bites. It just does not add up, to see that kind of lopsided inactivity, but it really is a bargain, today.