I love being able to copy & paste from places like blogthings.
| You Are 79% Tortured Genius |
 Your head is filled with everything - grand ideas, insufferable worries, and a good deal of angst. |
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
Again, go to the poll composite I posted. I don’t think Fred “steeping in front of him” has mattered one way or the other. There is nothing disingenuous about facts and the numbers don’t lie. DH was running 1 and 2% before AND after FDT got in the game. Fred has had little if any impact on Hunter. Seems there was nothing to impact.
***Thanks for the data. Does Free Republic polling data count? I take FR polls to be an indicator of the socon base, not necessarily republicans nor the general public. Hunter was way in the lead, Thompson declared, now he’s in the lead. Hunter and Thompson seem to split various polls on FR. He had his day in the sun. It’s Hunter’s turn now.
As for whether Fred deserves to be in the race, that is a matter of opinion and judges from this conservative bastion you are currently in the minority...
***You are a conservative bastion? Or perhaps you mean by the volume of posts and how many fredheads have come over to this Hunter thread, that shows that FR as a whole somehow disagrees with me? Sounds like a good poll to put on FR. If Hunter’s chances really were truly Nil, none of us would be having this conversation. Tommy Thompson, Brownback, those guys have no chance and I do not see any Brownback threads nor 250 responses on such a thread if there were one.
Say what? Oh, come on. We have a primary in this election.
***Then why are the arguments so similar? We haven’t yet had the primaries. That’s what this whole process is.
If we keep our analogies correct, Bustamante = Hillary, not Rudy.
***Would that be before or after the primary in your analogy?
I do see now where the anti-Fred feelings of DH supporters come from.
***I try not to harbor anti-Fred “feeeeelings”. I think it is a legitimate position to hold, especially seeing what happened on FR and taking FR as a snapshot of the socon base [once again, to be clear, not representative of republicanism as a whole nor the general public so we don’t go down that rabbit hole].
You see him as the one who robbed DH of what should have been his mantle.
***No, because I can still do something about it. I do see aRINOld like that, and where are all those Freepers that supported aRINOld? They’re probably supporting some name recognition candidate rather than a conservative, and a lot of them got the boot on the bugzapper thread & went over to WideAwakes.
Did you ever consider that Fred “waited so long” hoping that DH would pick it up?
***Yup. I did not understand what conservatives were saying about Hunter then nor do I understand it now. Conservatism has changed to the point that nannystaters like Huckabee and Bush are comfortably in the mold, and the pro-life platform is up for negotiation. I can’t say I’m happy about it, but it’s something I deal with.
Hunter is the only man I have given money to but I like Fred too. That said, when people are so narrow minded as to how to get rid of abortion it makes me wonder, is their goal to actually end abortion no matter who gets credit? How would Hunter end abortion in America? Freds approach makes sense and its realistic.
***I’ve stayed out of the abortion debate between Team Fred and Team Hunter except to throw in a snide note here & there pointing out that Fred’s nuanced position didn’t play so well in Pro-Life Land. Fred has a great pro-life record and he should just stick with it, he got the big endorsement he needed, I would be happy with whatever he chooses to do to take down the practice of abortion. When I see the federalist arguments I’m one of those guys who thinks it shouldn’t be a state issue whether or not to kill a 6 year old, and the same holds true for a preborn baby, but I am not one who is going to go hypercritical on Fred over this issue. He is good on Pro-Life, check that one off my list. Hunter is good on Pro-Life, and I especially like the personhood-at-conception thing because it wouldn’t require Roe V. Wade to be overturned. Both candidates are good on this issue, and this issue is important to me.
Like I posted just a second ago. It shouldn’t even be Fred vs. Duncan but Fred and Duncan vs. Huckabee. They may as well gang up on Romney and Rudy while their at it because their conservative credentials are suspect.
***This is the process of how it all gets hashed out. It ain’t a pretty process, like making sausage. The process itself seems to favor a crossdressing socialist like tootyfruityrudy, so I’m inclined to think there’s something wrong with the process.
Do you want a response on this thread or that thread?
Interesting to see you’re in SF, I’m in silicon valley.
and another difference is that McClintock was not mired at <3%.
***I don’t remember what McClintock was at, but the poll worshippers argued against him regardless of where he was at.
You still believe in Duncan’s chances. I respect that (question it, but...). So you can understand why others believe that your assessment of Fred is wrong.
***I can see it (question it, but...).
His momentum is building and it is not a stretch to picture him “kicking rudytoot to next Wednesday” in the future.
***His momentum is building? Did you read the original post or have you seen his latest poll numbers. He’s trending downwards in polls and at Intrade. He was supposed to have ALREADY kicked rudytoot away.
Come to think of it, an endorsement from Duncan Hunter might be the very thing that gets that started.
***And an endorsement from Thompson would do the same for Hunter. Thompson is out when it comes to a possibility of an endorsement from Dobson, but Hunter is not yet eliminated, so that puts him a step ahead in the endorsements I care about.
Its also not considered protected by the constitution to kill a 6 year old. There may not be any gray area between you and I but there is among those that make the law. That said, Freds record is what he should be judged on.
Yes.
I expect pissant to clear it up, once he’s out of the penalty box.
***Sorry to hear about that. It does get heated at times.
“In Trade fallacy”, good Lord you are sold on it aren’t you.
***the words in quotes were “Polls not Intrade” fallacy. And yes, I do think it’s a fascinating new tool that has better predictive capabilities than polling.
One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Re: pissant; I sincerely hope that he will be back soon. He's a good guy and we will all be on the same team soon enough. I couldn't help myself from doing the Don Quixote thing and I hope he'll forgive me - I'm kind of excited to have figured out picture posting and I thought that pic was terrific. Other FredHeads like him too.
Kevmo, you are beyond help. Good luck to you.
I’ll stick with traditon, not gambling...
***And I’ll stick with whichever has the best track record, using solid data from each side.
I see no evidence of a wholesale “stealing” of DH’s support.
***And you wouldn’t see such evidence, I would not call it stealing — “stealing the wind from your sails” is a nautical expression. It’s apt for what I see, and if a boat gets outmaneuvered in such a way that it can happen to it, them’s the breaks.
Yes there were some on FR, but then ask yourself why did they jump when others didn’t...
***On the whole I would say it is people who look at the character of the man first, name recognition second. One can be acquired within one election cycle and the other can’t. I do not have to ask myself, but since it pretty much did happen, that means I should be free to attempt the same maneuver myself for my candidate. Why are all these Fredheads on this thread if there’s nothing to the data? I see no activity on the real no-chancers like T. Thompson and Brownback. But there still is a lot of back & forth between team Fred and team Hunter and to have one side post the kind of results you see in this thread as data is strong evicence that something really is wrong.
As far as at 4% I found one of the polls, the CNN one, the other I’ll even give you... 4% in two polls... Ok now what?
***Now my aim is to reflect that 4% on Intrade, where the people who buy now can make 40X return on their investment and give some of that money to Hunter. I don’t know if that fits within Hunter’s team plan but that’s where I’m at and I’m fascinated with the predictor market results. That’s what I’m doing, all my freeper Hunter’s rangers can see me doing it and I really appreciate their help. Looks like Pissant got wounded, bummer. Keep in mind that if your guy gets nominated I will vote for him, but not for tootyfruityrudy.
But which is it, is middle America “hot” on immigration or is it not playing well vs. other issues that hunter stresses less often, such as the War and the Economy?Seems a bit contradictory.
***Good question. I thought immigration was a big hot-button issue based upon the shamnesty plan and the reaction it stirred. But this poll contradicts that, so what I think is that immigration is an issue that is becoming complicated like a third rail in politics, and it can kill a candidacy but it cannot make a candidacy. Mainstream America views it as a checklist item but I see it as a deep social problem that needed to be solved long ago. So I guess the way to sum it up is that it is a hot-button issue for the right and even much of the left, but it isn’t as important as the economy[stupid] and Jobs to mainstream america. That poll is the only evidence I have seen that it is not as big of a hot-button issue as would appear from the level of activity against shamnesty, but it sorta makes sense. I wish it were a big hot-button issue for the republican party, but this party is split hard on that issue. I have posted on many threads that we should be using RICO lawsuits to sue employers who hire illegal aliens. We can do something about this.
Interesting deduction, but purely speculative, and even that is thin.
***But Hunter did lead on FR before Thompson came in.
Hunter had name recognition issues BEFORE Fred’s entry, as is obvious from numerous polls.
***Yes, this has been acknowledged over and over and over again. But name recognition can be acquired. He would have had better name recognition by now if Fred had not come in, and there is evidence that Free Republic would have supported him handily.
Thompson’s entry had a nominal impact on Hunter. Definitely not enough to put him in the top tier.
***What?
Speculation and the repetition of it will not make it so...
***And yet, I keep seeing repeated over again & again that Hunter doesn’t have name recognition. He is gaining that, while Thompson loses all the momentum he was given as a freebie. Hunter’s the better candidate.
One last thought. Trying to blame Fred for Hunters woes, well it actually seems your are under cutting Hunter and his standing as a politician.
***Well, if I was trying to blame Fred for Hunter’s woes, that would be the case. But there is no blame attached. Fred did what Fred wanted to do and he was certainly a viable candidate. But I am calling his viability into question. At this point in the race, that should not even be possible. 250 posts on this thread? If what I were saying were completely unfounded, there would be 10 posts, if any at all.
If he was a good as you present him as being, Fred should have had no impact on him one way or the other.
***No, because you’re viewing it through the prism of blame. It is not something you can blame another candidate for, it just is. It’s the reality on the ground. Do you trust the poll results here at FR to represent what FReepers believe? Those polls show Hunter losing his support to Fred. Fred has squandered that support. I know that what I say is not popular but it could very well be true. I have presented data to back up my contention, and heck, people can even make MONEY from what I’ve been posting so we shall all see. That has got to be unique in political history. It certainly is fascinating.
Is he?
***Not yet, and I hope to bring it to people’s attention that might find Hunter’s contract a bargain. If I had the cash, I’d do it.
One other bit. I thought you gave no credence to polls, you had found your source or whatever in In Trade. Now you think a poll should be reflected in In Trade?
***I think it is established in places such as this efficacy thread that futures markets are better predictors than polls. That means polls have some predictive value.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
I think polls more than 13-14 months out in an election are measuring name recognition alone, so I discount them a little bit in favor of more recent polls. And look, it’s the recent polls that show Hunter at 4%, but we’re still pretty far off from the election. However, once voters start to pay attention to the primary cycle, the polls should tighten up in their value, assuming they go through all that scientific rigor stuff and aren’t just push-polls.
That said, Freds record is what he should be judged on.
***Good enough for me. I like Fred’s record on this.
| You Are 79% Tortured Genius |
|
Your head is filled with everything - grand ideas, insufferable worries, and a good deal of angst. |
Good luck to you and your candidate
And better luck to mine!!!
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