Oh, look. Someone else posting Intrade data. You might want to ping them. It’s 2 for the price of 1 day for stalkers.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925892/posts?page=37#25
Intrade.com data can be wrong. I remember that on election day 2004 the bettors believed those silly exit polls and had Kerry at 80% to win.
However, intrade.com does consist of real people betting real money. And that’s a bit harder to spin or fake than public opinion polls.