Replies

Well, it’s interesting to see someone else posting Intrade results.

It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.

Still a lie.

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Nope, still a lie. Not a percentage, just a futures price.

Those are way out of date. Things change faster than that.