Has he closed above 0.1 on the 'real money" market lately? Nope. Why do you keep touting Hunter's "Intrade" numbers when they don't exist?
Do you have a link to the “real money” market data, as separated from the pretend-o-rama data?
Kevmo: Then trust what you are hearing and seeing, in polls and on Intrade. Hunter is slowly rising, Thompson has shown a deep decline.
KevKrom: on Intrade. Hunter is slowly rising Has he closed above 0.1 on the ‘real money” market lately? Nope.
***Note that you took the end of one sentence and put it onto the next sentence. The apples-to-apples comparison in polls is that Hunter slowly rising, Thompson is falling. The apples-to-apples comparison on Intrade is that Hunter is still at 0.1% and Thompson has gone from 35% to 6% over the last few weeks, with an opening of the dropout contract which is currently at 4% or so.
When Hunter hits 5% and gains a spot on the Iowa debate, how long before the Intrade results should bounce from 0.1% to 5%? I don’t know, but it’s got to be a bargain of some sort.
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Why do you keep touting Hunter’s “Intrade” numbers when they don’t exist?
***I trust Intrade more than polls. Does that mean that currently I think Thompson has a 6% chance of winning the nomination and Hunter a 0.1% chance? Well, no. I see Hunter as undervalued and Thompson as approximately the right value. These markets value liquidity, so if someone buys Hunter at 0.1% it might be a while before it goes up, perhaps when the primaries come around. The real telling story at InTrade is the 30 point drop for Fred. If that’s due to fundamentals like how poorly he’s running his campaign, then Hunter IS doing better than him, with far less money and far less name recognition.