Posted on 11/13/2007 11:13:48 AM PST by pissant
The American electorate is a fickle mistress. Just ask former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.).
When Thompson announced his candidacy for president just after Labor Day most national polls showed him running a close second behind former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the majority of state polls had him in the top three.
No longer. Thompson's campaign has yet to take off as expected and voters -- especially in crucial early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida.
The most recent data comes from New Hampshire where two surveys were released over the weekend. The first, conducted by theUniversity of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe, put Thompson in sixth (yes, SIXTH) place with just three percent of the vote. (Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the way with 32 percent.) In a Marist University poll Thompson again took sixth place with just five percent support. To be clear, Thompson was never a frontrunner in New Hampshire but polls conducted in the run-up to his announcement and just after he formally entered the race show him regularly polling in double digits.
Thompson's shrinking support is apparent in other early states as well. The last three polls taken in Iowa put Thompson in fourth, fifth and fourth place, respectively, and his high water mark in any of those surveys is 11 percent. In Florida, too, Thompson appears to be fading. A new poll conducted for the Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times showed Thompson in fifth place (eight percent) behind Giuliani (36 percent), Romney (19 percent), Arizona Sen. John McCain (12 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (nine percent).
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...
so great you’re right. it is basically a Rudy Romney race so why are we arguing between Fred and Hunter supporters when we know both won’t get the nomination?
I know why I’m casting my vote for Hunter in NY primary and that is to help give him a shot to be picked for VP or in the cabinet. I don’t have any illusions about his chances of winning the nomination.
Only one (non-insane, yes I’m talking to you, Ron Paul) candidate is promoting that, and it’s Fred Thompson.
***If that’s true, then it’s a feather in Fred’s cap and it would make sense to post it at the Fred vs. Hunter thread to see if it survives. If it does, kudos to Fred.
Are those your words, in bold?
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...
Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.
No bite yet huh...
Huckabee outpolls Fred, and NRTL picked Fred over Huckabee because the polls showed Fred ahead of him.
***I think it was because at the time they were having their discussions, Fred was outpolling Huck. They really should just stick with whomever has the best pro-life record, the political calculus might hurt them. I think this endorsement is going to help Fred’s campaign quite a bit. Of course, I wish they’d endorsed Hunter, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
Nein!
Nyet!
Non!
Nope!
Nada!
Rien!
Zippo!
The Empty Set!
As opposed to Romney ‘I’m so good and perfect I am entitled to the Presidency’ or Ghouliani ‘I am Mr. 9-11 who will make a New Yorker of every American’?
Did you know the recent Rasmussen polls were of registered Republican households only? That means a teenager could answer the phone and say they are for McCain if Hillary doesn’t make it.
New Hampshire poll? Marist poll? You know anything about these polls? Two words, they suck.
Rasmussen is good when they qualify households down to the like primary voter. That wasn’t done here. Did you know that nationally Rasmussen has Fred Thompson in the lead? When all voters are taken into account, Fred Thompson leads because he persuades the crucial swing voters that he not threatening.
The only poll that matters now are those polls done by organizations with a track record of objective data gathering from likely primary voters who are asked unambiguous questions. Rasmussen occasionally does those kinds of polls but they are expensive and time consuming. The expensive polling method was likely not done this time around because Rasmussen always states when they do.
I agree. This the Washington Post attempting a full court press along with their affiliates.
They are trying their damnedest to demoralize public support for Fred Thompson.
Kevmo:The data is BETTER THAN polling data.
Petronski: Uh, not at this point. The markets are too thin, the results too easy to manipulate.
***Round & round we go. See post #244. If you have a problem with the efficacy of prediction markets, here’s the thread for you. Post your contentions there. But I notice that you posted on the thread where Fred was leading on Intrade, so you don’t mind throwing in your voice when the news is good from this source.
Fred Takes Lead on InTrade!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1842292/posts?q=1&;page=251
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
I’d be ashamed too.
Thompson is probably not a christian, and certainly has let it be known to Dobson that he “won’t dance to his tune”.
Are those your words, in bold?
That is *not* his reasoning. He was very explicit. He is opposed philosophically to criminalizing abortion and he thinks HLA is contrary to federalism. He wasn't making a *practical* argument but a philosophical one.
By the way, I am sympathetic to the practical argument.
Good on him [wants to fix Social Security by destroying it]. I want to do the same.
Bad on him because he claims he's trying to save it. If you plan to take down SS, be clear about it. But also be prepared to be destroyed politically.
How so [isn't he addressing immigration]?
I've heard he wants to "get tough" but I hadn't heard he supports building a fence. But IMO that isn't nearly enough and doesn't get to the heart of problem. for example, it doesn't address all the illegals aready here and it doesn't say how the labor void will be filled.
people who want to make money find the best information
Just because I have no desire to manipulate the markets is not proof that it cannot be done. Big fallacy there. Huge.
***Just because it might possibly maybe conceivably could sorta be done doesn’t mean it IS being done. Big fallacy there. Huge.
If you have evidence that it is being done, bring it on at the efficacy thread. Until then, your own posting history shows that you seem to like the Intrade market when it says good things about your guy and now you don’t like it when it says bad things about your guy.
Deafening silence..
Are those your words, in bold?
People who have made money and seek the power to hold onto it will create disinformation on their opponents and enemies.
This has nothing to do with Fred...and everything to do with the Inside the Beltway oligarchy that runs the country. He’s NOT their man...and IS why he’s mine......
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