Posted on 11/13/2007 11:13:48 AM PST by pissant
The American electorate is a fickle mistress. Just ask former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.).
When Thompson announced his candidacy for president just after Labor Day most national polls showed him running a close second behind former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the majority of state polls had him in the top three.
No longer. Thompson's campaign has yet to take off as expected and voters -- especially in crucial early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida.
The most recent data comes from New Hampshire where two surveys were released over the weekend. The first, conducted by theUniversity of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe, put Thompson in sixth (yes, SIXTH) place with just three percent of the vote. (Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the way with 32 percent.) In a Marist University poll Thompson again took sixth place with just five percent support. To be clear, Thompson was never a frontrunner in New Hampshire but polls conducted in the run-up to his announcement and just after he formally entered the race show him regularly polling in double digits.
Thompson's shrinking support is apparent in other early states as well. The last three polls taken in Iowa put Thompson in fourth, fifth and fourth place, respectively, and his high water mark in any of those surveys is 11 percent. In Florida, too, Thompson appears to be fading. A new poll conducted for the Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times showed Thompson in fifth place (eight percent) behind Giuliani (36 percent), Romney (19 percent), Arizona Sen. John McCain (12 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (nine percent).
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...
BINGO!
I agree there is probably an up trend for Fred from 6% to 7%, but it’s now back down to 6% and all those 800 contracts changed hands. Volume is high. Fred is likely at the bottom of his fall, but there’s no knowing that.
Ya know, I'd like to comment but, for the time being, I'm holding back to see how the field ends up playing out. There are a lot of winners (IMO) in the second tier candidates, I just don't know if any of them will be able to survive the primaries.
I must have missed the lies you keep saying are in there. Demostrate them. Otherwise you are blowing smoke. Is there one mistake out of a dozen citations? Point it out.
Already done on the other thread. I’m not doing your reading for you.
Well like all investments I have ever made (none on politics) time is the key.
I get hundreds of pings when I post a thread, as you can see. The only thing I recall you bellyaching about is the Fox interview, where he stupidly said we cant send them back and we need to give them “aspirations for citizenship”. That is the Huckabee/McCain position. Sorry it’s amnesty, despite your spin.
No, I was big on Fred and very hopeful. Can't stand the others u mentioned, although I might consider voting for McCain's mom. But did u see the CSpan2 press meeting on SocSec? It's certainly possible that Fred is weak when ad libbing, but he was so low on enthusiasm and seemed very unfocused and bored. What's up with him? Yes it was a press briefing, but he must have known it was being recorded.
We can only try.
What was your opinion? Did u see how he sort of mixed up different passages when reciting the plan? I know the subject is not terribly exciting, but he just seemed bored to tears.
Here’s how it works.
1. Anti-Fred thread is started, including lies and distortions.
2. Lies and distortions are pointed out and proven false.
3. Much spittle and invective flies, defending the distortion and lies.
4. At least a few days pass.
5. New Anti-Fred thread is started, including same lies and distortions.
6. Lies and distortions are pointed out.
7. Proof is demanded (as if it had never been given before).
8. Lather.
9. Rinse.
10. Repeat.
Never going to happen pissant, give it up.
Was that lather or blather...
“It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. I guess that that is a proper thing to do when you are preparing for battle.”
I have yet to make a decision as to who I’ll be supporting in the primaries, but I disagree with what you wrote here.
I think repressing all doubts, and convincing yourself that everything is dandy because you want it to be is a recipe for defeat. I point to the 06 midterms. A thorough housecleaning was in order for the GOP, not sticking our heads in the sand, and claiming that “The Dems Were Worse” That’s the kind of logic that causes root rot. I don’t care too much about what everybody else does, I’ll be judged by what I do. And the bugling about the MSM manipulating the polls...turned out to be wrong huh? Anyway I just joined this thread to comment on the current polls, not to try to change anybodys mind about who they support. To me it’s a bit sad, we took ideals that were noble and fine, and we(and I mean almost everybody on both sides of the political aisle) whored them out like this were a sporting event. OK rant off...down from soapbox, now back to just reading the current data and commenting on that.
Pissant, in post #88 I see only one spot where Hunter got 4%, which is how many support him. But as far as “likely to vote for him” how does he get 4%?
Every site needs a court jester. Thanks for being ours, Pissant.
Actually, it will. And guess what, you’ll be happy about it.
Blather, rinse, repeat?
Damn! I wish I’d thought of that!
CNN/Opionion Research poll. It is right there. About the 4th poll down.
Big deal — they’re just showing what the media is telling them.
***Wrong on that one. Intrade showed Fred plummeting before it started showing up in the polls. Intrade showed Ron Paul rising before it showed up in the polls. It now shows Huckabee, um, maybe topping out.
When Thompson starts his rebound, his “stock” will jump accordingly.
***Good to know.
The “futures” market is much more volatile than surveys of likely voters, because they are totally subject to perception.
***And yet, they are better predictors of outcomes than polls.
However, those same “futures” markets do tell us that Hunter is not only perceived as a massive longshot, but that he’s also stagnant in that position (no change since July).
***Ahah. Does that mean you now accept what the Futures market has to say? It’s good data when it shows Hunter at 0.1% but bad data when it shows Fred at 6%? That means Fred IS at 6%, which is what I’ve been saying. He’s lost a lot of ground. Hunter hasn’t lost any, hasn’t gained any.
I know you want to believe otherwise, but just $10 will buy you 100 shares of Hunter. Put your money where your mouth is and see if you can ever sell those shares for a profit.
***I hope to do so.
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