Rasmussen Daily Poll (Romney takes 2nd place/16%)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 13 November 2007 | Rasmussen Reports

[Spiff]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Rudy Giuliani on top, Mitt Romney in second, and Fred Thompson sinking in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani attracts 27% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide while Romney has moved up a couple of points to 16%. John McCain remains in third at 13% while Thompson is now tied with Mike Huckabee at 11%. Ron Paul's support fell a point to 5% and no other Republican tops 2% (see recent daily numbers).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Senator Hillary Clinton is the top choice for 41% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Senator Barack Obama earns the vote from 20% while former Senator John Edwards attracts 17%. Bill Richardson is preferred by 5% and no other candidate tops the 3% level among Likely Democratic Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers).

Just 25% of Americans believe Democratic candidates have been “piling on” Clinton and attacking her unfairly. Democrats are more likely to believe that to be the case, but there is no gender gap on the issue.

New state election polls show Giuliani and McCain competitive with Clinton in Connecticut, Clinton competitive in Georgia, and Clinton doing well in Tennessee against anyone but Thompson. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss has solid leads over three potential challengers in his bid for re-election and former Senator Bill Frist is a very early favorite for the 2010 Governor’s election in Tennessee.

Romney is now seen as the most conservative Republican candidate, a crown previously worn by Thompson. Huckabee is gaining fast, hampered only by a relatively low level of name recognition. Polling data from the past week has been kind to Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.

Among Democrats, the campaign has become a tale of two narratives that will collide in Iowa on January 3. In one narrative, Clinton’s campaign has been hurt by the stumbles of recent weeks while the other considers her the dominant frontrunner. Both have the virtue of being true.

Finally, 61% of Americans now want U.S. troops to come home from Iraq within the year.

The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily, Monday through Friday. The Presidential Tracking Poll will be updated seven days a week beginning Saturday, December 1, 2007. Daily results are based upon a four day rolling average and new results are posted each day by noon Eastern.

Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

[Edit35]

I am not sure what happened to Fred.

Fred pulled a STRATEGIC blunder by waiting until September to announce, while all other candidates were out there fighting, organizing, fundraising, etc.

That sealed the idea in people's minds that Fred (and I love the guy) is a lazy "hands-off I'm-not-really-sure-I-want-this" kinda guy.

[Edit35]

I am not sure what happened to Fred.

I love Fred.

But his campaign slogan should read:

HEY, I"M NOT REALLY SURE I WANT THIS THING:

WADDA YOU THINK?

[Edit35]

Romney v Guliani. Oh my.

Nothing wrong with Romney.

He is super smart. He is charming, which goes a looong way toward neutralizing negative attacks (which the lib-Dems will launch real soon)

He out-wits and out the zings the shark-infested national media all the time (after 8 years of GWB, that will be a blessing, believe me)

He has come out with very good conservative position papers on taxes, abortion, the war-on-terror, illegal immigration, judges -- everything.

And his family is one of the MOST photogenic and calming in the entire US of A -- which also speaks hugely as to what kind of character he has.

One only has to look at the Clinton gene pool, and Guliani's sordid personal life and you realize that Romney has a built-in ad campaign family -- just in the first tier of sons and daughters.

[Edit35]

Well, then I guess the Republican party base no longer exists.

Much of the Republican base realizes that a winning candidate needs a certain kind of charm in order to attract high percentages of voters.

Hunter is fabulous, and I love the guy. He just doesn't have that indefinable likability that is so essential to winning the US Presidency.

Is that fair? No -- but it is reality.

[Edit35]

The only material difference between Romney and Hillary...

Ronald Reagan once signed into law (in 1967 California) the most sweeping pro-abortion law in the nation.

Reagan also proposed and passed the biggest Social Security tax increase in history, in 1983.

Reagan also proposed and passed the biggest AMNESTY for illegals law in history.

Yet, most people, including me, still love the man and consider him a great conservative.

Romney has certainly made some dumb statements he probably wishes he could take back.

But he HAS governed from the right on almost all issues, regardless of the dumb comments.

Lastly, I too was once a dumbster who had liberal thoughts. Yet by 30-years old I had turned into one of the most ultra conservatives.

[Edit35]

the reason Rudy isn't tanking badly in the polls is because his staff is using the internet to make folks think he is not liberal in his views.

I still think the national pollsters overpoll people from NYC and California -- most of whom are brainwashed daily by the Dem-loving national media.

[Edit35]

The roots picked up on Fred...

I firmly believe that people had a vision of Fred based on his "Law and Order" personality, which of course uses makeup, scripted lines, etc.

When Fred failed to live up to that 'take-no-prisoners' attitude, people were disappointed.

Also, I believe his ongoing medical thing (cancer?) has weighed heavily on his mind, and that of his staff and supporters.

Thus, his turtle paced performance.

[LS]

I have no problem voting for ANY Republican who wins the primary. And if the ‘base’ is ‘nauseous’ with any of them, you better think long and hard about the possibly fatal damage a Hillary presidency will do to this nation.

[Swordfished]

In a way, the people who most wanted him to succeed may actually have set him up for failure.

When you build up someone to the degree that was done (basically that Thompson was the second coming of Reagan), there is no where for them to go but down if they aren't the real deal. The MSM knows this and applies this pattern repeatedly - built up, tear down, repeat.

[ejonesie22]

Your right...

It’s just a little matter...That was brought up here ad nauseum..

[sandude]

I always enjoyed your posts.

[LexBaird]

Fixing our porous borders SHOULD be a huge part of national security.

Preaching to the choir. That's one reason why I don't understand how Giuliani's "security" image has held up. I suspect much of his actual support comes from two camps. First, the Joe Lieberman Dems and centrists, who want all the Dem social programs and domestic policy, but aggressive foreign policy. Second, those who have bought into the myth that only he can beat Hillary, despite the fact that he dropped out last time he ran against her.

[CottonBall]

That was brought up here ad nauseum..

I guess I missed it (happily). I didn't think it was illness that made him look .... older or whatever it is. Just stress and getting too skinny. I guess being too thin for a woman is considered good, but not for a man!

[CottonBall]

And if the ‘base’ is ‘nauseous’ with any of them, you better think long and hard about the possibly fatal damage a Hillary presidency will do to this nation.

Here we go with the 'lesser of 2 evils' argument already. It didn't work in 2006 and it won't work now. I actually think a RINO can do much more damage than a liberal democrat. We know what to expect from a lib and the Republicans in the 2009 Congress will have the b*lls to fight it. BUT, they will likely not fight the exact same policies from a RINO. Case in point is amnesty and spending under Bush. The RINOs followed him right over those cliffs without a thought.

[CottonBall]

That's one reason why I don't understand how Giuliani's "security" image has held up.

I doesn't make sense. Any Republican supporting Guiliani doesn't make sense. I think you're right about his support coming from the nonbase or from the base that is buying the MSM info. Anyone who actually stands for the GOP platform couldn't look at Rudy's positions and decide they're a good match.

[KC_Conspirator]

I usually did not think that a candidate had to start so darn early, but I guess its true now. Usually candidates started around one year out seriously getting ready to run. Maybe its just the effect of a 24x7 news cycle or the fact that democrats spent 18 months campaigning for the 2004 election.

[LS]

Boy, is that a poor analogy. In fact, the conservatives got their butts kicked in 2006---Burns, Santorum, Allen, J. D. Hayworth, and DeWine. You can make excuses for each one of them, but ultimately, it hardly argues that people were "enraged" against RINOS. A lot of RINOS got kicked out too---but that doesn't explain why the conservatives, especially Allen and Santorum and Hayworth, weren't rewarded.

And I certainliy don't look at ANY of our candidates, except the nutjob Ron Paul, as "a lesser of two evils." I see all of them as infinitely superior to Hillary, PERIOD.

[LS]

Well, remember that 30 years ago, the candidates didn’t even announce until the spring of the election year. That got pushed ahead by almost a year. Then came the earlier primaries. We could always go back to “King Caucus,” and forget the nominating conventions altogether.

[TheThirdRuffian]

Sure, I’ll accept coverts.

But Romney is a two-weeks-before-running-suddently-joined-the-NRA convert.

Listen to Romney’s 2002 impassioned story about why he was pro-abortion -— replete with a yarn bout family friend dying in back-alley abortion -— Romney was on FIRE, very convincing.

Assuming Romney was acting in 2002 when he told the back-alley story, he would have had to have a Road-to-Damascus experience, which he admits he lacks.

In short, Romney’s sudden recent coversion is transparently false.

[CottonBall]

A lot of RINOS got kicked out too---but that doesn't explain why the conservatives, especially Allen and Santorum and Hayworth, weren't rewarded.

Probably guilt by association. From what I've seen, voters tend to either wholly embrace a party. Or not. When there is enough anger against the actions of a Republican President and Senate, even conservative House members that were opposing those actions get lumped in the same group in some voter's minds. Not everyone is on FR everyday getting their news firsthand and analyzing the information, unfortunately.

And I certainliy don't look at ANY of our candidates, except the nutjob Ron Paul, as "a lesser of two evils." I see all of them as infinitely superior to Hillary, PERIOD.

I think Guiliani will do more damage to the country in the long run. Damaging the GOP, just as Bush as done, will have consequences that go beyond one term.