Giuliani 27%
Romney 16%
McCain 13%
Huckabee 11%
Thompson 11%
Posted on 11/13/2007 8:08:22 AM PST by Spiff
So, um, Scott Rassmussen fears Fred? Funny thing is, I’m still rooting for Fred to get it together. Don’t see what good alternative we have. And yea, it’s just polls. But geez.
Fred was once our hope. Not looking very promising at this stage. For those who say, “there’s still time”, they need to realize that really there is about another week. Once Thanksgiving hits, politics are done for the year. Then the first early primaries hit, and very soon we are at Feb. 5 when the nominee will be determined.
Fred’s history.
It will “probably” be Giuliani, but, Romney’s early victories (especially if he pulls out SC) might make it interesting on Feb. 5.
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Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
That makes second, third and fourth statistically tied.
Undecided 22%
If Romney sweeps the early primaries these current polls won’t mean a thing. Not only will they tighten up but he’ll probably pull ahead for good.
I am, as well. But right now, Huck and Mitt are running the best campaigns. Fred MAY be getting his act together in his key states, but so far the campaign staff has been unimpressive. McCain is core support - his campaign has no steam to run out of. The rest are pretty much within the margin of error of zero. (Paul's a libertarian, not a republican, so his support is coming from a different place.)
At this point, Fred only has about a month left to get his campaign running at full speed.
16 - 11 = 5
4 does not equal 5
3rd and last are statistically tied. 2nd is not.
And you never made this argument when Thompson was ahead, but statistically tied with Romney. Interesting timing how you just trotted out your poor math.
I really thought Fred would connect not only with the GOP Base but with Independents in Blue and Purple States. And now, apparently that is not the case. I also thought the Rudy would be case aside by the GOP Base and obviously that is not the case for now.
That leaves Romney and McCain. Neither a first, second or even third choice but GOP traditions says that McCain will get the GOP nod and the money shows that Romney will get the nomination.
Fred Thompson and his advisers had better act fast, as we are already in mid-November. If this poll is accurate, he is sinking down to Mike Huckabee levels nationally. In New Hampshire, he is only 1% ahead of Ron Paul! If Thompson cannot win the South Carolina GOP primary, his campaign will be over.
Its not too late for Fred to comeback, but time is getting really short as we go into Iowa.
Romney viewed as most conservative? Guess it proves that money can make a lie work.
I think Fred thought it would just come to him.
the wesley clark of the 2008 cycle.
Seven weeks to IA.
If Romney sweeps the early primaries these current polls won’t mean a thing. Not only will they tighten up but he’ll probably pull ahead for good.”
That’s the question, isn’t it? If that is true, Romney wins. If it turns out that his “mo” doesn’t translate into better numbers on Feb. 5, then Giuliani wins.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Giuliani is running a campaign that is unlike any in GOP primary history (forgetting about the early states, banking on the big ones). But this cycle with all the front loading (Feb. 5) is unlike any other. So using history as a guide it is impossible to say what will happen.
But you are quite right in stating the relevant data. If Romney wins those first 4 (he will certainly win 3 of them), then ...?
Rudy gets the Kerik/Robertson bounce.
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