Hillary will get about 45% of the popular vote IMO. That means to win, the Republican will need at least 46%. That will be hard to do with either Ron Paul, who will leave the national security conservatives out in the cold, or Giuliani, who will leave many of the social conservatives out in the cold.
I don’t expect any third party bolt, like in ‘92 and ‘96. But voters will stay home in disgust in both of these cases.
Today, to get more than 45% of the popular vote, Republicans will not be able to leave any voters at home. We MUST have a candidate who will unite the vote, not divide it.
Paul is more polarizing within the party than Giuliani because conservatives put national security ahead of all domestic issues, especially social issues.
They will give up social issues before national security.