Posted on 11/11/2007 10:06:51 AM PST by freespirited
Republicans lost the governorship of Kentucky and the state senate in Virginia last week. But the elections were not as bad as they looked for Republicans. Knocked down and trampled on by Democrats in 2006, Republicans are at least back on their feet in 2007.
The Democratic trend in Virginia, especially in the suburbs of Washington and urban centers of Hampton Roads, was the most discouraging aspect for Republicans. It reinforced the likelihood that former Democratic governor Mark Warner will win the seat of retiring Republican senator John Warner next year and suggested the long Democratic drought at the presidential level might be ending.
The last Democrat to win Virginia was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Bush won the state in 2004 by 8 points. "The right Democratic candidate can win Virginia," Governor Tim Kaine said last week. "The wrong Democrat can't." Kaine, a Democrat, has endorsed Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Taking into account Republican Bobby Jindal's election last month as governor of Louisiana and the strong (but losing) performance of Republican Jim Ogonowski in a special House election in a heavily Democratic district in Massachusetts, Republicans are in considerably better shape now than a year ago.
The Republican brand. It is a far from what it once was, particularly in Virginia, but it appears to be gradually regaining respectability. The most startling example was the upset victory of Greg Ballard as mayor of Indianapolis. Badly outspent and lacking strong name identification, Ballard knocked off a two-term Democratic incumbent.
In Mississippi, Republicans made serious inroads. Governor Haley Barbour was re-elected with ease, and Republicans took all but one statewide office. In Louisiana, Republicans have a chance to win the state house in next week's runoff election. They must win 11 of 16 races, an unlikely event, but not impossible either since Katrina drove more than 100,000 Democrats from the state.
Better yet, Republicans have a candidate in Louisiana to challenge Democratic senator Mary Landrieu in 2006. This is John Kennedy, who recently switched parties, and was unopposed in his re-election as state treasurer.
Taxes. The tax issue--no, the anti-tax issue--wasn't a factor in the 2006 election, but it's coming back. Republicans desperately need it. It's the one issue that binds Republicans of all ideological stripes while also attracting independents and soft Democrats.
Ballard's victory in Indianapolis was spurred by his opposition to raising property taxes and to a county income tax. In Washington, a generally blue state, voters rejected two referendums to increase taxes and passed another bolstering the legislative super-majority required to enact a tax hike. In Oregon, voters refused to raise cigarette taxes to pay for child health care.
The Democratic presidential candidates have helped revive the tax issue by insisting on letting the Bush tax cuts expire. And the Democratic chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Charles Rangel, has proposed a 4 percent surtax on high earners.
New Republican faces. There aren't many, but then only a few states hold elections on odd years. The most important newcomer is Jindal, 36, one of the most impressive Republicans in the country. He is both a policy-generating machine and a smart politician. Jindal is bound to attract national attention.
Immigration. This issue continues to be far less of a vote-grabber than Republicans believe. Advocating a tough crackdown on illegal immigrants "helped in a few places but not statewide" in Virginia, said Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. Republican Congressman Tom Davis said the issue may have saved two seats in the state house of delegates, which remained in Republican control.
Whether Republicans hurt themselves among Hispanic voters statewide is unclear. In his campaign for governor in 2005, Republican Jerry Kilgore emphasized a policy of denying any state aid to illegal immigrants. The issue didn't work and he lost to Democrat Tim Kaine.
Virginia. Republicans see two rays of hope in Virginia. Davis, whose wife lost her state senate seat, said the Republican brand is still tarnished. But Republican candidates did better in the outer suburbs of Washington and around Norfolk and Newport News than they had in 2005 or 2006. These are the fastest growing areas of the state and the areas of Republican strength.
Sabato, the leading expert on Virginia politics, believes the cycle favoring Democrats that began with Mark Warner's election as governor in 2001 may be "nearing its peak with Warner's campaign for senator" in 2006. The previous cycle, for Republicans, lasted from 1993 to 2001.
The biggest fear of Virginia Democrats is Hillary Clinton. If she wins the Democratic presidential nomination, she'll unite Republicans, drive away "swing independent moderates," and lose Virginia, Sabato says. "She'll start another Republican cycle." Republicans certainly hope so.
Exactly. But the right RAT would be Zell Miller or John Breaux. Not Shrillary! or Barack.
I've been arguing with some folks here for months that Hillary! will never get Virginia's electoral votes. I think I have convinced no one, but can Larry Sabato?
The biggest fear of Virginia Democrats is Hillary Clinton. If she wins the Democratic presidential nomination, she'll unite Republicans, drive away "swing independent moderates," and lose Virginia, Sabato says. "She'll start another Republican cycle."
“It reinforced the likelihood that former Democratic governor Mark Warner will win the seat of retiring Republican senator John Warner next year and suggested the long Democratic drought at the presidential level might be ending.”
Happier tune? That’s happier?
I did not know this. Virginia ping a ling?
You gotta read farther than that for the happier stuff.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
The Democrats would have to approach 70% in Fairfax County to overcome the rest of the state, assuming none of it swings closer to the Dems from where it was in 2004. Even Tim Kaine and Jim Webb had to take votes from south Virginia to put them over the top (Bush won Virginia Beach by 20 points, Allen by 5 points)
VA will stay in the GOP ledger if we get a conservative nominee.
ping
Fred & Mort yesterday on "Beltway Boys" seemed to think Romney will be the nominee if he can win the first three primaries. Since he's largely unknown to people outside the states where he has been campaigning, the people in the other 47 states may say "not so fast."
I don’t know what to make of the situation. Have we ever had anything like this before ... where a candidate is not pulling much more than 10% nationally (fourth place), yet is going to win IA and NH?
Also, I don’t know if Mitt is electable. The responses when people are asked “would you vote for a Mormon” give me great pause.
I doubt his electability, quite apart from the Mormon issue. He may be rich and telegenic, but whether he can evoke any enthusiasm from Republican voters or win over enough independents to be able to beat Hillary remains to be seen.
Virginia ping.
(btw freespirited, you can always feel free to grab the ping list from my profile page)
Mark Warner is not really an appealing candidate except to Democrats of a certain persuasion.
Not sure Hillary can get away with the Nazi act ~ maybe she can. Might be interesting if she showed us her stuff NOW.
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