The night before the Iowa caucuses in January 2004, Intrade’s investors thought Howard Dean had a 45% chance of winning the caucus; Gephardt had 25% chance and Kerry was a distant third at 20%. The same day, the Iowa Electronic Markets gave Howard Dean 51% chance of winning the donk nomination, Wesley Clark 21%, and Kerry only 13%.
Investors Point To Iowa Winner
Some tracking polls show the presidential contest in Iowa as too close to call, but the invisible hand of the market is pointing to the favorite.
Howard Dean is the choice of two political futures markets, where thousands of speculators, unlike journalists, put their money where their punditry is. They buy and sell contracts that pay off if a candidate wins.
At press time on Saturday, Dr. Dean’s stock in the Iowa caucuses market at Intrade.com was listed at 45, meaning that investors gave him a 45 percent chance to win the caucuses tomorrow. Next was Representative Richard A. Gephardt at 25 percent, followed by Senator John Kerry at 20 and Senator John Edwards at 8.
Dr. Dean also remained the favorite to be the eventual nominee on another exchange, the Iowa Electronic Markets. Traders yesterday gave him a 51 percent chance to win, putting him well ahead of Gen. Wesley K. Clark (21 percent) and Mr. Kerry (13 percent). This exchange has been run since 1988 by the University of Iowa’s business school, which says its futures market has usually been more accurate than public opinion polls at predicting election results.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DEEDA1638F936A15752C0A9629C8B63
Here’s an article from your own source, The Street, discussing why presidential futures markets are not necessary great predictors (main reasons are relatively tiny betting pools, relatively miniscule amounts wagered, and susceptibility to manipulation):
Those Spurious Presidential Futures
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/barryritholtz/10185976.html
You always spoil the fun of the anti-Freds.....:)
You left out the main point, and recap, which is given the above information an intelligent person would say that they are 99.9% BS.
But good post!
I see that I pinged you over at this other thread and you didn’t bother.
If you have a better unbiased indicator, we’d all like to hear it, and especially to show how its performance has beaten trading markets like Intrade.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum