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Posted on 11/09/2007 5:31:50 PM PST by Reform Canada
SUPPORT FOR CALL FOR REVIEW OF UN IPCC
Dr Vincent Gray, a member of the UN IPCC Expert Reviewers Panel since its inception, has written to Professor David Henderson, to support the latter’s call for a review of the IPCC and its procedures.
Dr Gray wrote:
Thank you for your latest article containing your analysis of the limitations of the IPCC and your belief that it is possible for it to be reformed.
I have been an "Expert Reviewer" for the IPCC right from the start and I have submitted a very large number of comments on their drafts. It has recently been revealed that I submitted 1,898 comments on the Final Draft of the current Report. Over the period I have made an intensive study of the data and procedures used by IPCC contributors throughout their whole study range. I have a large library of reprints, books and comments and have published many comments of my own in published papers, a book, and in my occasional newsletter, the current number being 157.
I began with a belief in scientific ethics, that scientists would answer queries honestly, that scientific argument would take place purely on the basis of facts, logic and established scientific and mathematical principles.
Right from the beginning I have had difficulty with this procedure. Penetrating questions often ended without any answer. Comments on the IPCC drafts were rejected without explanation, and attempts to pursue the matter were frustrated indefinitely.
Over the years, as I have learned more about the data and procedures of the IPCC I have found increasing opposition by them to providing explanations, until I have been forced to the conclusion that for significant parts of the work of the IPCC, the data collection and scientific methods employed are unsound. Resistance to all efforts to try and discuss or rectify these problems has convinced me that normal scientific procedures are not only rejected by the IPCC, but that this practice is endemic, and was part of the organisation from the very beginning. I therefore consider that the IPCC is fundamentally corrupt. The only "reform" I could envisage, would be its abolition.
I wonder whether I could summarize briefly some of the reasons why the scientific procedures followed by the IPCC are fundamentally unsound. Some of you may have received more detail if you received my recent NZClimate Truth Newsletters (see under “Links” on this website).
The two main "scientific" claims of the IPCC are the claim that "the globe is warming" and "Increases in carbon dioxide emissions are responsible". Evidence for both of these claims is fatally flawed.
To start with the "global warming" claim. It is based on a graph showing that "mean annual global temperature" has been increasing.
This claim fails from two fundamental facts
1. No average temperature of any part of the earth's surface, over any period, has ever been made.
How can you derive a "global average" when you do not even have a single "local" average?
What they actually use is the procedure used from 1850, which is to make one measurement a day at the weather station from a maximum/minimum thermometer. The mean of these two is taken to be the average. No statistician could agree that a plausible average can be obtained this way. The potential bias is more than the claimed "global warming.
2. The sample is grossly unrepresentative of the earth's surface, mostly near to towns. No statistician could accept an "average" based on such a poor sample. It cannot possibly be "corrected"
It is of interest that frantic efforts to "correct" for these uncorrectable errors have produced mean temperature records for the USA and China which show no overall "warming" at all. If they were able to "correct" the rest, the same result is likely
And, then after all, there has been no "global warming", however measured, for eight years, and this year is all set to be cooling. As a result it is now politically incorrect to speak of "global warming". The buzzword is "Climate Change" which is still blamed on the non-existent "warming"
The other flagship set of data promoted by the IPCC are the figures showing the increase in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. They have manipulated the data in such a way to persuade us (including most scientists) that this concentration is constant throughout the atmosphere. In order to do this, they refrain from publishing any results which they do not like, and they have suppressed no less than 90,000 measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide made in the last 150 years. Some of these were made by Nobel Prizewinners and all were published in the best scientific journals. Ernst Beck has published on the net all the actual papers.
Why did they do it? It is very subtle. Brush up your maths. In order to calculate the radiative effects of carbon dioxide you have to use a formula involving a logarithm. When such a formula is applied to a set of figures, the low figures have a greater weight in the final average radiation. The figure obtained from the so-called "background figure" is therefore biased in an upwards direction.
My main complaint with the IPCC is in the methods used to "evaluate" computer models. Proper "validation" of models should involve proved evidence that they are capable of future prediction within the range required, and to a satisfactory level of accuracy. Without this procedure, no self-respecting computer engineer would dare to make use of a model for prediction.
No computer climate model has ever been tested in this way, so none should be used for prediction. They sort of accept this by never permitting the use of the term "prediction", only "projection". But they then go ahead predicting anyway.
There is a basic logical principle that a correlation, however convincing, is not proof of causation. Most scientists pay at least lip service to this principle, but its widespread lack of acceptance by the general public have led to IPCC to explore it as one of their methods of "evaluating" models.
The models are so full of inaccurately known parameters and equations that it is comparatively easy to "fudge" an approximate fit to the few climate sequences that might respond. This sort of evidence is the main feature of most of the current promotional lectures.
The most elaborate of all their "evaluation" techniques is far more dubious. Since they have failed to show that any models are actually capable of prediction, they have decided to "evaluate" them by asking the opinions of those who originate them, people with a financial interest in their success. This has become so complex that many have failed to notice that it has no scientific basis, but is just an assembly of the "gut feelings" of self-styled "experts". It has been developed to a complex web of "likelihoods", all of which are assigned fake "probability" levels.
By drawing attention to these obvious facts I have now found myself persona non grata with most of my local professional associations, Surely, I am questioning the integrity of these award-winning scientific leaders of the local science establishment. When you get down to it, that is what is involved.
I somehow understood that the threshold had been passed when I viewed "The Great Global Warming Swindle". Yes, we have to face it. The whole process is a swindle, The IPCC from the beginning was given the licence to use whatever methods would be necessary to provide "evidence" that carbon dioxide increases are harming the climate, even if this involves manipulation of dubious data and using peoples' opinions instead of science to "prove" their case.
The disappearance of the IPCC in disgrace is not only desirable but inevitable. The reason is, that the world will slowly realise that the "predictions" emanating from the IPCC will not happen. The absence of any "global warming" for the past eight years is just the beginning. Sooner or later all of us will come to realise that this organisation, and the thinking behind it, is phony. Unfortunately severe economic damage is likely to be done by its influence before that happens.
Click on POGW graphic for full GW rundown
New!!: Dr. John Ray's
GREENIE WATCH
Ping me if you find one I've missed.
Lawrence Solomon's "The Deniers" (a series of articles on the view of scientists who have been labelled "Global Warming Deniers"):
Other References:
Thank you SO MUCH for your Globull warming interest/information!!
Global Warming on FreeRepublic
I have been looking at this for a couple of years now. The debunking of the “leftist science” is essential and it must be done as soon as possible. It must be done before the enactment of laws that take credit for the upcoming cooling.
That is exactly what will happen. There is no way to stop it I am afraid.
Thus the ENTIRE global warming scare/scam/awareness/alarmism/warning/warming is based on a SINGLE 27 year warming trend (1972 - 1998) yielding 1/2 of one degree increase.
For 9 of the past 36 years (1998 - 2007) temperatures have been stable.
(Viewed a different way, Bush has solved Al Gore’s global warming crisis! Since he took office, there has been NO global warming!)
You’re right - the enviro extremists WILL take credit for the coming cooling, but there precious CO2 will keep rising. They CAN be proved wrong (again) but the MSM will hide their failures.
By the way, has solar cycle 24 started yet? Last I heard it is now significantly overdue, and cycle 23 was itself very low. Are we actually beginning to see the next cooling cycle - as in 1936-1972?
Do not be so pessimistic, fight lies always - what happens then is not your responsibility.
(You would be paranoid too - if everyone was out to get you.)
Just because I’m paranoid doesn’t prove they’re not really out to get me! ;o)
We must all be thankful for the Goron!
His over the top lies in his flick have finally awoken the real scientists, and they are coming out in droves to refute the puke that the Goron as spewed.
Finally! Now, will the MSM report the truth to the public? This school’s still out!
“A man who lies to himself, and believes his own lies, becomes unable to recognize truth, either in himself or in anyone else, and he ends up losing respect for himself and for others. When he has no respect for anyone, he can no longer love, and in him, he yields to his impulses, indulges in the lowest form of pleasure, and behaves in the end like an animal in satisfying his vices. And it all comes from lying to others and to yourself.”
Fyodor Dostoyevsky
(1821-1881)
The Brothers Karamazov
It has recently been mentioned in the news that the remains of trees from 7000+ years ago are now exposed by retreating glacial ice in Greenland. I’d like to know how it could have been warm enough 7000+ years ago to grow trees where we have had thick glacial ice in recent millenia. There must have been some horrible “global warming” 7000 years ago due to bronze age output of CO2....... and then the planet cooled for some reason????
I am fighting this political AGW locomotive as hard as I can with the time I have available.
But I see society being herded to the socialist left in the name of the "common good" as has NEVER happened before.
At present, people as a whole are willing to give away freedom and money for safety like always expanding police protection for gun control. This at the same time that the SAME people are NOT WILLING to allow the government to do what it is supposed to do, fight foreign enemies, as we have right now with terrorists and the threat of a nuclear IRAN.
I don't know if things will ever fully move back toward individual freedom and capitalism without another revolution. The problem is, now we have the UN, International Law, and possibly the LOST that are moving in to control our lives. Any revolution in the future will be a global revolution.
Cycle 23 is predicted to end about March 2008, or about 0.75 years later than average. I think I heard that the Cycle 23 low is very low.
Are we actually beginning to see the next cooling cycle - as in 1936-1972?
I certainly hope so. That is the only way I believe we can take some steam out of the AGW political locomotive.
But I see society being herded to the socialist left in the name of the "common good" as has NEVER happened before.
Oh but it has happened before, the Socialist/Communist have been running this scam on freedom since the 1920's. Yeah, right now, they seem to be winning, but; there has never been so many opposing them as there are today. Fear not the tide will turn.
I have been using that tag for years, after many comments on it , you are the first that has come close. Close but no cigar.
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