Financial Market Predictions Today? (VAnity)

n/a | 11/08/2007 | Me

[rightinthemiddle]

I think there will be a bounce, a sell-off, another bounce, then the market will end slightly down.

The “value” buyers will come in and buys some stocks, then the “traders” will sell off.

At this point, I’m not calling it a “dead cat.” There’s a bubble in oil, and in gold.

[RSmithOpt]

Yep...one of them red funny lookin' fire trucks will be needed to put the flames out to help the dust settle after the shakeouts in the markets and our economy has adjusted. More hose! More hose!, LOL!!

So, is dollar cost averaging going to be a smart move with 'staying in' some for the next 3-4 years? (referring to long term good return performing mutual funds - > 10% over 10 years).

[rightinthemiddle]

Yeah, I bought a house in July, at 6.75 percent (the top, of course). I’m already thinking about a re-fi...with a CR of 840, I expect better rates.

[RSmithOpt]

Yup....and the euro gains as the dollar will fall. Ben Ben has to raise rates right after New Year’s....this is orchestrated.

[montag813]

Awesome, thanks!! I knew someone knows a whole lot more than me on that kind of stuff.

It's just one man's opinion. I may be wrong, which is why we have risk management and stop loss targets.

[Free Vulcan]

We are at the 50% retracement level from the August to October runup. As of a few minutes ago we are a bit below 50% and have broken through the down trendline of the retracement pattern.

The last hour yesterday looked like capitulation selling. bid/ask and tick volume did not move near as far for the last down movement as they did earlier in the day, and b/a and tick volume were diverging by the end of the day, and are today too.

As of now it looks like a bounce. But, how much of one I don’t know. I don’t believe we will see new highs for awhile.

It’s not a big deal till we hit about 1420 on the S&P. If we break that we will break thru the 4 year trendline of the monthly chart current bull market. Then it could get serious.

[RSmithOpt]

And all automated to electronically sell when needed.....it just needs the agreement of senior staff quickly...the bigger the amount...the quicker the phones conference calls for the official OK to the brokers for the order?

[sarasota]

The Today Show led with the economic factors that are sure to tank the markets: fall of dollar, rise of oil, housing, etc. Gloom and doom.

[RSmithOpt]

And the Feds dumping more money into the market this morning cause oil futures to go up and the dollar down. 9(Shame on that move)

SO, if we break the 4 year trend line in the S&P, then with the US economy so shaky now, trader, brokers etc., know its overvalued and sell off? I love FR in that a lot ove finance folks are on hear & I've learned quite a bit from laymen explanations and then research on my own....not from some by the book college professor.

[RSmithOpt]

Well, that figures....talk it up, by never discuss why the USeconomy is where it is.... ughh like the truths? Over borrowing, illegal immigration, Congress selling us out.

[SaxxonWoods]

The S&P has made 3 assaults on its’ high, and failed each time. The latest failure, coupled with GM’s big loss, the worry over the FED being boxed in, and oil prices, has triggered the selling. Stock are cheap compared to bonds, so downside should be limited, barring some really bad news coming out. I think we stay in a trading range until the market feels like all the bad news is out re the subprime losses. I’ve got a 10 year horizon, so I’m just watching, but I’m also heavy with cash.

The Denver real estate market seems to have hit bottom and started improving over the last few months. Colorado resort real estate is hot. It will be interesting to see if this spreads and becomes a regional upturn. Colorado went flat while the boom was still going elsewhere, maybe Colorado is a leading indicator coming out of the downturn.

[Red Boots]

Either up or down. Or flat. Mark my words. ;-)

He, he. That made my day.

[Muleteam1]

>>I bought a house in July, at 6.75 percent<<

I was lucky to have gotten a 4.6 percent (15-year fixed) several years ago. I would be surprised if it gets that low again too soon but I could be wrong.

[Alberta's Child]

The decline in the dollar is not based on reactions to "yesterday's news" . . . it's based on forecasts of tomorrow's news. Foreign investors are loathe to invest in the U.S. because they know damn well that a period of massive inflation and/or exorbitant tax hikes are going to be needed to pay out of our financial mess (specifically with regard to huge unfunded liabilities for Medicare and Social Security).

[Free Vulcan]

I daytrade index options so I primarily have a day perspective, but the market is like a Chinese box, shorter term trends within larger ones, from a few minutes to 500 year cycles.

I’m also a tape reader/volume trader, so I don’t use many chart patterns, other than major trendlines and retracements as guidelines to potential reversal points of volume confirms. I primarily use microstructure indicators like bid/ask and tick volume, as well as value, and their relation to total volume and breadth. You almost have to do that to day trade options.

In that light, what you’ve seen since the July top is primarily selling, though we’ve hit new highs. Whether that is distribution within a trend or a sign of reversal I do not yet know.

Contrary to that the current total volume spike on the high was greater than the last, while the spike on the current downside is less than the last. The bid/ask and tick volume which have dropped as a percentage of the whole, suggests the big dogs are accumulating or distributing. Right now I’d say accumulating, but I can’t tell for sure.

As of now it’s 50/50 either way. The next few days and weeks will tell. As for today, it looks like short term accumulation. We shall see. If it drops today substantially, then I’d say the outlook is bearish.

[Free Vulcan]

I agree, we are at a accumulation/distribution point. If we can hold here, if the fundamentals turn positive, the market will take off.

[SaxxonWoods]

“Foreign investors are loathe to invest in the U.S. because they know damn well that a period of massive inflation and/or exorbitant tax hikes are going to be needed to pay out of our financial mess (specifically with regard to huge unfunded liabilities for Medicare and Social Security).”

---

Oh really?

From the Wall St. Journal:

U.S. Remains Top Magnet for Foreign Investment

Despite all the worries about U.S. economic competitiveness, the U.S. remains both the world’s largest magnet for foreign direct investment and the biggest source of such cross-border investment. The U.S. “continues to occupy a dominant position as foreign investor as a recipient of direct investment after a one-off drop in outflows in 2005 due to changes in the corporate tax code,” the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a new report.

Among industrialized countries, the U.S., the United Kingdom and Luxembourg were the biggest recipients of foreign direct investment in 2006, while the U.S., France and Spain were the biggest investors, a recent tally by the multilateral Paris-based organization found.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2007/07/05/us-remains-top-magnet-for-foreign-investment/

[RSmithOpt]

Cool. However, from a sliding dollar, the positive turn would lead a takeoff with those companies that do a lot of overseas work (construction), export (goods), or services (engineering)?? By that, cheaper than overseas counterparts whose currency values have climbed against the dollar recently?

[Free Vulcan]

That and all kinds of exports, as we would be the cheaper producer. Especially with rising costs here if we can churn out some big productivity gains and keep manufactured goods at the same cost or slightly higher.

I have always thought the dollar overvalued, or at least artificially propped. What’s killing us is our debt. We need to drastically cut budgets and start paying back our debt, at all levels. That combined with a good export surge and a reduction in taxes would help our economy greatly.

[RSmithOpt]

I've been thinking that ever since The Gipper asked for the BB amendment and the Line-Item-Veto. A great man who truly loved this nation and his wife.

You think there's a sound way to keep the dollar value low against other currencies even after paying off our debt?

The gov needs to balance their budgets and we need to cut useless programs.

The Ameican consumer and household seriously need s to use restraint and wean our collective butts off the credit teat.

BTW, I'm looking at the downward trend on the DOW as of now, with the volume constant pretty much:

The NASDAQ is real 'spikey':

A buddy of mine started options trading with GOOGLE the focus. Hope he's made money.