| Intrade Political 'Securities' | Percentage | US$ Traded |
|---|---|---|
| Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 40.4% | $1.2M |
| Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 6.0% | $919K |
| John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 7.1% | $1.5M |
| Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 29.7% | $999K |
| Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 6.2% | $607K |
| Newt Gingrich to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 0.3% | $590K |
Is Intrade more reliable that a poll?
Re Intrade, the Iowa Futures Market, etc. — since these markets have gotten so much attention, I looked into their actual accuracy. It turns out that because of the small size of the markets, the relatively tiny amounts wagered and their suceptability to manipulation, they are pretty useless as predictors.
For example, the night before the Iowa Caucuses in 2004, investors thought Howard Dean had 45% chance of winning Iowa, Gephart had 25% chance, Kerry had 20% chance and Edwards had 8% chance.
At the same time Jan 18, 2004, Iowa Electronic Markets investors thought Dean had a 51% chance of winning the overall donk nomination, Wesley Clark had 21% chance, and Kerry had 13% chance.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9502E2D81639F93BA25752C0A9629C8B63
The very next day, John Kerry won the Iowa caucuses with 37.6% of the vote, Edwards was second with 31.8%, Dean was a distant third with 18%, and Gephardt was fourth with 10.6%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses
Here’s an article that explains why these markets are so unreliable:
Those Spurious Presidential Futures:
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/barryritholtz/10185976.html