PM fights back in key seats (Australian election)

The Weekend Australian ^ | 3rd November 2007 | Dennis Shanahan

[naturalman1975]

JOHN Howard has fought back in key marginal seats in NSW and Victoria, giving the Coalition at least some new hope of winning the election, although Kevin Rudd has forged ahead in Queensland and South Australia.

A special Newspoll survey of the 18 most marginal Coalition seats in four states reveals Labor can achieve its winning target of taking an extra 16 seats -- three or four in each of NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

But the survey suggests the extent of the Coalition's losses will be between eight seats -- which would allow it to easily retain government -- and 22 seats, a six-seat win to Labor.

The Prime Minister's seat of Bennelong in Sydney would appear to be safe, at least according to party sources on both sides, although a Galaxy poll in tomorrow's The Sunday Telegraph shows Labor's Maxine McKew ahead of Mr Howard on primary votes and after preferences. According to the Newspoll survey, Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull could lose his Sydney seat of Wentworth.

While the ALP is still in front of the Coalition in key marginal electorates, the gap is much narrower than national polling indicates -- a margin of just three points on primary votes, 47 per cent to 44per cent.

The latest Newspoll survey -- the most comprehensive poll since the start of the campaign, questioning almost 3500 voters -- is the strongest result for the Howard Government during the election campaign and puts Mr Howard ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister in his home state of NSW.

Yesterday, the Opposition Leader repeated his warnings that he thought the national polls did not reflect the narrowness of the election campaign.

[naturalman1975]

This article is one of the first to prominently appear that really does a proper, detailed analysis of the Australian polls.

I've been saying for a while that the a lot of people were looking at the Australian opinion polls too broadly - looking at Labor's Two Party Preferred advantage in a way that doesn't reflect how the electoral process actually works.

It's an easy trap to fall into - we intuitively feel that the 'break point' to win an election should be gaining more than 50% of the vote.

But because we are dealing with a Parliamentary democracy, that isn't necessarily so.

Labor lost the 1999 election despite winning the 2PP vote 51-49.

This year, they really have to win 52-48 to just barely scrape into office. 53-47 is more realistic.

And that is where the polls currently stand.

Since beginning this campaign, the Howard government has halved Labor's lead in the polls. And there's still three weeks to go.

I can't say we will win - but the doom and gloom many people are feeling about our chances is unwarranted.

We've got a good chance of holding onto government.

[Nextrush]

Its tougher for the coalition to pick up anything on the second preference vote than the first vote.

That’s because of the left-leaning third parties as I see it. They won’t go with the coalition on second preference.

[normy]

Thats what happens when your opponent is caught eating his own ear wax, which I suppose is better than eating someone else's.