Posted on 11/02/2007 9:18:38 AM PDT by eastsider
In the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, Rudy Giuliani remains on top, five points ahead of Fred Thompson. Among Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide, Giuliani is preferred by 24% while Thompson is the first choice for 18%. Mitt Romney and John McCain are each at 13% while Mike Huckabee is clinging to double digits at 10%. No other Republican attracts more than 3% support (see recent daily numbers).
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
What does it matter in NY?I hold the minority position that Giuliani's winning the New York Republican Primary is not a foregone conclusion. If there is any one place I would hope to break the inevitability of his nomination by offering a conservative alternative to him, it would be in New York. The New York viewing audience is a major portion of the total MTP audience, and I was hoping to get as much mileage as possible for Thompson, who I support, from his appearance on MTP.
We now know that Fred had a really bad Sunday. Also, in 2000 there was a noticeable weekend bias for Republicans, so we could be seeing that for Fred.
“Actually, with a four-day rolling average, today’s number would have Sunday (10/28) “dropping off” the average.”
That is what is confusing, Rasmussen has daily polling, and weekly averages. What I was talking about was the daily polling, you are obviously referring to weekly averages. Or am I wrong?
People get upset when numbers drop and we might be comparing apples and oranges.
Do I really need to point out which crank Soros-backed “Republican” candidate is NOT polling competitively against any of the others...? ;)
I think MTP repeats on MSNBC on Sunday nights.
Yes, we know that has happened often, LOL
Rasmussen's daily results are based on a four-day rolling average, that is, the result published on day X is the average of individual results from days X-4 through X-1.
On a Friday, like today, that means the result is based on the average of Monday through Thursday. The previous day would have included Sunday through Wednesday. Essentially, the difference between yesterday and today is that Sunday's result "fell off" and Thursday's was added in.
What that likely means is that compared to the "true" average, either Sunday's individual result was significantly low (either an outlier or a short-lived swing of opinion), Thursday's was significantly high (ditto), or some combination of the two.
Only watching the trend over time will allow you to really know for sure.
This isn’t 1970 anymore. Those state primaries have very little meaning anymore except some slight value as a barometer.
Unfortunately, I have a choice only between using one free service which does not allow any tick marks on the bottom of the graph and has fat graph lines, or the other free service which uses the nearly invisible yellow for the 4th element of any graph and does not allow an element to start in the middle of the graph with out an annoying line jump from 0 to the new value. I'm using both right now, trying to decide which one works best.
See #28. Rasmussen's "daily" poll refers to the publication frequency, not the period polled, which is more like half a week.
I agree. Romney is now up in South carolina in the RCP average. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina, he’s the GOP nominee. As you say the rest of the states like Florida and Michighan will fall his way.
Thank you for that explanation. It helps a lot.
Thank you for gracing this thread with that lovely picture : )
Gee, you DO know that Meet the Depressed is not just a local show, right?
Fred had better start putting out adds. I know he’s given up on NH. But he must find a way to finish strong in Iowa and win big in South Carolina to gain some momentum. Romney is the model to follow, spend millions and millions and millions of dollars. Romeny sounds like a Reaganite for God’s sake. And people are buying into it.
Romney will not win a southern primary. Not one.
IMHO.
My pleasure. :)
That’s the classic primary tactic, but this campaign season’s accelerated primary schedule might not allow enough time to register the kind of bounce from Iowa and NH that we’ve seen in the past.
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