Employment is a lagging, not leading, indicator.
The fact that the CMT yield curve inverted about a year-and-a-half ago means that we will be in recession before fall of next year.
A saving grace is that the Business Cycle Dating Committee will probably not announce the recession until after November.
When there is job growth no one anticipated, it is a positive indicator.
Prior to a recession job growth may grow steadily and then fall off a cliff in the midst of a recession, but jobs appearing that no one was looking for is not part of that common trend.
The fact that the CMT yield curve inverted about a year-and-a-half ago means that we will be in recession before fall of next year.
There is no such predictive magic formula. And the yield curve is not inverted now.