Only by idiots.
>>The validity of future’s markets is sometimes questioned.
I wonder how much money it would take to move the market? In a thinly traded stock a wealthy person can change the price.
If this site is very influential, it might be important enough to influence. Romney and Guiliani have the most money to blow.
Markets may provide insight, but their predictions are often sufficiently vague that it's hard to tell whether they were "right" or not. For example, a 5% showing by Fred may mean that a lot of people think he's not going to win the nomination unless some other candidates blow things worse than expected. Well, suppose the other candidates blow things badly and Fred gets the nomination. Does that mean the markets were right or wrong?