of course it can go up. There’s plenty of time. but the market is telling Fred he really needs to change
In Demcember of 2003 Howard Dean was trading in the 70’s on the IEM market. http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/media/12_10_03.html His nearest competitors were Wesley Clark and Hillary Clinton (who had already ruled out a 2004 candidacy.) John Kerry who, as some of you may recall, was fated to win the 2004 nomination and narrowly lose to President Bush, wasn’t selling at any price.
An open nomination contest is highly predictable, but not if you take polls and expert opinion from the usual suspects seriously as most of the bettors apparently do. Whatever the polls say you’re not likely to lose money betting that voters will opt for the candidate who is best positioned to take their party’s case to the electorate in a general election.
For the Democrats in 2004 that was John Kerry. He was antiwar enough for the rabid Dem base but conventional enough and with enough medals to persuade some gullible moderates and swing voters that he could be trusted to protect the nation.
For Republicans next year it’s Fred Thompson. Neither Giuliani nor Romney has the right history or ideological orientation to argue the Republican case. Of the serious candidates, only Fred is selling what the GOP wants to buy. Whatever the markets may say, he is therefore very likely to be the Republican nominee.
Wait a couple of weeks to see if the price gets a bit better and then bet the house limit on Fred.