Posted on 10/31/2007 12:09:51 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
PROVIDENCE, R.I. - Rhode Island lawmakers, in a bid to make their tiny state matter in presidential politics, voted Tuesday to move the state's presidential primary up to Feb. 5, joining 22 other states.
Lawmakers working during a special session Tuesday evening hastily rewrote a bill that had died earlier in the year. It passed with little debate in the Democrat-dominated House and Senate.
A spokesman for Republican Gov. Don Carcieri said earlier in the evening that he would not veto the bill if it passed.
Rhode Island is perennially overlooked in presidential races. It has just four electoral votes in the general election and rarely attracts presidential candidates for anything but trips to private fundraisers.
State Sen. Leo Raptakis, the bill's sponsor, argued that Rhode Island would become politically irrelevant if it didn't move its primary up from March 4.
"If you wait until March 4, the race is over," Raptakis said. "The disservice would be that Rhode Islanders aren't going to go out to the polls because their votes (are) going to be irrelevant."
Carcieri and others have said moving the primary is unlikely to change the Ocean State's importance in presidential politics. State Rep. Robert Watson called on Carcieri to veto the proposal.
"When California and New York are rolling out their primaries that same day," Watson said, "do you really think that anybody is going to come to this state between now and Feb. 5 and seek the small number of votes they could get?"
Darrell West, a political scientist at Brown University, said the skeptics are probably right.
"Half the states are holding primaries on that day, so Rhode Island still is going to get lost in the mix," West said. "February is still better than March, because the whole race certainly will be over by March."
A national primary so early is going to backfire and really hurt the American people. It’s the opposite of a deliberative process. We will have to take whoever the money guys push at us . . .
Only hope would be that there is such chaos that no one wins a majority of the states and we get a convention decision. Now that would be cool . . .
It doesn't matter who wins in Iowa, NH or NC. All that matters is who has the name recognition and money to finish 1st and 2nd on Super-duper Tuesday. That's the whole ball game.
This might backfire in a big way. Suppose, on the Republican side, Romney wins Iowa with Huck in a delegate earning 2nd, Giuliani wins NH with Romney in a delegate winning 2nd and McCain a delegate gathering 3rd. Thompson Takes SC, with Huck in 2nd, and Thompson wins FL, with Giuliani in 2nd. Romney takes Michigan.
Now on Super Duper Tuesday, the southern states except Arkansas go for Thompson, Connecticut, NJ and New York go for Giuliani big, CA goes for him small, Romney wins Colorado and Montana, McCain wins Arizona, three way split in Illinois (Giuliani/Romney/Thompson), Thompson wins Missouri with Romney 2nd, etc.
When the dust settles, no candidate has a majority of delegates, let alone a winning number to coast on until the convention. At this point, two things happen: the candidates who have no realistic chance (McCain, Huckabee) start negotiating with those who do (Giuliani, Romney, Thompson), and suddenly a bunch of states taht all the pundits thought would get written off become VERY important.
Romney and Giuliani would slug it out in PA, Thompson and Romney fight for Kansas, Thompson and Giuliani fight over Texas. By the time May rolls around, either one of the three fizzles out and releases delegates, or you get one heckuva convention.
Normally, parties don’t like contentious primaries. In this case, it might be a good thing, as the voters at large won’t be completely worn out by one candidate being on constantly.
Some state should have moved to November, so they could roll it in with the regular November vote, and save the cost of a separate primary.
My backyard is bigger than Rhode Island.
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