Posted on 10/28/2007 12:35:23 PM PDT by uksupport1
NEARLY 1,000 extra troops are on standby to be sent to Iraq before Christmas to cover the handover of Basra to the Iraqis.
The troops represent an overall increase in the size of the force in Iraq despite the pledge by Gordon Brown this month, when “election fever” was at its height, that 1,000 troops would be home by Christmas....
The decision to give control to “provincial Iraqi control” is expected to lead to an eventual reduction in the number of British troops in Iraq to about 2,500, half the current figure, early next year.
Those 2,500 troops will be built around an 1,800-strong quick reaction force to be sent in to assist the Iraqi forces in the event of serious violence. It will remain in Iraq for the foreseeable future....
General Peter Wall, deputy chief of the defence staff, said last week he saw no scope for further reductions in the near future, although more of the 2,500 could be moved to Kuwait at some point.
One senior officer said that despite reports of increased violence, Basra was relatively peaceful. “Attacks are down and the Iraqi army and police who are now running downtown Basra are doing a great job,” he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at timesonline.co.uk ...
Love how they slip that first bit in there. I haven't seen ANY posts that showed an increased violence activity in Iraq--in fact just the opposite. The second half --the actual quote-- is more in lines with fact.
I know what you mean! Also, all media reports about Basra have to include the line ‘in the grip of a turf war between rival Shiite factions’. Evidence, please :-)
Violence in Iraq is becoming more and more rare. Baghdad is quiet and has been for some time. The incidents are few and far between now when just a few months ago, they were daily and sometimes several times a day.
We've gone from hearing regular explosions to hearing almost none at all. And what we do hear now tends to be either controlled detonations or "outgoing mail."
The media is desperate to keep the war going, but the Iraqis are not. :-)
despite reports from Michael Moore, Code Pink, the Dixie Chicks, Murtha, Cindy...
Thank you for your report from Iraq. My daughter will be heading over there at the beginning of the year and I have been concerned with the fact that the British are leaving and she is going to the southern part of the country. I am afraid that her base is going to be out there all alone.
“By Christmas 2007, we expect there to be around 4,500 UK troops based in Iraq. This number will fall to around 2,500 from next Spring.”
http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/Templates/Factsheet.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRNODEGUID=%7bF0BB1DF1-A9C7-4E17-96E7-B3301B06E45F%7d&NRORIGINALURL=%2fDefenceInternet%2fFactSheets%2fOperationsFactsheets%2fOperationsInIraqFactsandFigures%2ehtm&NRCACHEHINT=Guest#mc2
So the UK 4th Mech Bde will be augmented to ~5350 personnel in to the spring. Good.
3-14 IA Bde is due to form in March and 4-14 in mid-2008. The timing fits. By then the 14th IA Div will be up to 60-70% and growing fast.
Previous reporting made it sound like the UK was starting withdrawl after New years to reach 2500 in July. This puts them augmenting up by a Bn until spring and then starting to reduce...
Much better.
Have you noticed that this is 18-20% augment?
The US surge was no bigger when measured as percentage of forces. This makes much more sense than the previous reporting in press that had indicated the reductions would start after New Years. Spring is much better, as it allows the IA time to get situated.
This is a surge of forces to cover the IA build gap that I have been looking at. This is covering the 6mo gap that I saw. Someone in UK agrees that that gap was not desirable.
I am now retracting my previous objections to the UK reduction schedule since, it was based on erronious reporting of the plans...
Depending on which paper you read, the stories are different on withdrawl...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1918572/posts
Gordon Brown later announced that British troop levels would be cut by 1,000 before Christmas.
In January another 500 are slated to leave and a further 1,500 are to be pulled out by the middle of next year, leaving just 2,500 troops in southern Iraq.
Thanks for the info. As always, I think a lot of these conflicting press reports are just speculation. I suppose we’ll just have to see where we are in 6months. The UK government is still maintaining that withdrawals will be conditions based and that, by the end of next Spring, UK forces will still have the capability to intervene in support of Iraqi forces.
Just out of interest, what’s the situation with Karbala? I believe that a month or so ago 50 people were gunned down there in militia fighting. I have heard that it has just been handed by the US back to the Iraqis? Was this to exploit Al-Sadr’s 6 month cease-fire?
Reporting is definately contridictory on Basrah. The reinforcement until next rotation in Jun makes much more sense operationaly. Gives 14th IA the extra 6mo it needs to get stood up. The last IA Bde for 14th (4-14) is due to form Mid-2008.
The US hasn’t been based in Karbala for months. The IA and INP augmented the local forces after the last problem with JAM and they stood up a Karbala Operations Command to coordinate. The only assist that they needed was some air recon and part of that was done with IZAF ISR assets. Diwaniyah is the problem area with JAM these days in MND-C, Karbala is dialed down.
Note: Sadr City is getting its own IA Bde (3-11) assigned to it in Dec. With the ISOF and Coalition SOF targeting of “rogue” JAM/Special Groups, I keep wondering how long the “cease-fire” will last.
Five new IA Bdes and another Div HQ are to be formed by Mid-2008.
The IA is going to 13 Divs, 52 Bdes, and 156 line Bns by early-2009. Artl Rgts start in 2009.
Bootcamp thruput is up to ~108,000 per year. (Minus 20-25,000 for attrition) By comparison, the US recruits 80,000/yr to maintain 500,000 in Army. Gives you an idea where the IA is planning to grow to...
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